Tottenham vs Newcastle – 10 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 26 Tue, Feb 10 · 19:30 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Tottenham 15th · 29 pts · 25 played LLDDL

1–2Full time

Newcastle 12th · 33 pts · 25 played WDLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 69). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tottenham. Tottenham had 3.3 days of rest, Newcastle 3.1 and had to travel 398 km.

Away travel398 kmRest days3.3 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Tottenham42%

Draw25%

Newcastle34%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.50

Tottenham38%

Draw27%

Newcastle35%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.30

Tottenham42%

Draw25%

Newcastle33%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.46

Tottenham34%

Draw25%

Newcastle42%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.68

Tottenham41%

Draw26%

Newcastle33%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.39

Over 2.5 62% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 200

Team strength

Tottenham

Newcastle

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

56 AttackIn forecast 61

74 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tottenham

Newcastle

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.44

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

80% Scored inContext 72%

28% Clean sheetsContext 28%

10.88 ShotsContext 12.92

3.84 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.52

35% On target shareContext 35%

7.75 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

69% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 11%

1.91 OffsidesContext 2.06

12.20 Shots allowedContext 11.08

4.16 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.12

3.21 BlocksContext 3.50

3.09 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

70% Save rateContext 68%

51% PossessionIn forecast 54%

421 PassesContext 459

345 Accurate passesContext 385

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.93

11.00 FoulsContext 9.71

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

2.56 Yellow cardsContext 1.48

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.90

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.00 ShotsContext 14.50

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

37% On target shareContext 35%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.60

67% Box shareContext 73%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.20

11.70 Shots allowedContext 13.80

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

3.70 BlocksContext 3.20

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

67% Save rateContext 69%

50% PossessionIn forecast 55%

443 PassesContext 490

367 Accurate passesContext 411

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.60 FoulsContext 7.30

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tottenham

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel398 km390 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tottenham	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.3Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb	3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	524 km	390 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	11.9	11

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1G. Vicario(G)

24D. Spence 37M. van de Ven 3R. Drăgușin 14A. Gray

29P. Sarr 8Y. Bissouma 22C. Gallagher

7X. Simons 19D. Solanke 28W. Odobert

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

33D. Burn 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 2K. Trippier

41J. Ramsey 39Bruno Guimarães 28J. Willock

11H. Barnes 10A. Gordon 20A. Elanga

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tottenham Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tottenham-0.7 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Newcastle+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Tottenham · Home 0.83points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 2-4-6
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.33

Newcastle · Away 0.83points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-6
Scored: 0.92
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Tottenham	Newcastle
Manchester United	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	L 0–1 A
Manchester City	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A	W 2–1 H
Burnley	D 2–2 AW 3–0 H	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H
West Ham	L 1–2 HW 3–0 A	L 1–3 A
Bournemouth	L 2–3 AL 0–1 H	D 0–0 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Brentford	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H	L 2–3 HL 1–3 A
Crystal Palace	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 H
Liverpool	L 1–2 H	L 1–4 AL 2–3 H
Nottingham Forest	L 0–3 A	W 2–0 H
Fulham	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 H
Arsenal	L 1–4 A	L 1–2 H
Chelsea	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 H
Everton	W 3–0 A	W 4–1 A
Aston Villa	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Leeds	W 2–1 A	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A
Wolves	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Brighton	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 A
Points	28 of 72 · 1.17 per game	32 of 72 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

3 Tottenham wins2 draws5 Newcastle wins

Goals per game2.00 – 2.40 Over 2.5100% Both scored90% Clean sheets0% · 10%

2 Dec 2025Newcastle2–2Tottenham
4 Jan 2025Tottenham1–2Newcastle
1 Sep 2024Newcastle2–1Tottenham
13 Apr 2024Newcastle4–0Tottenham
10 Dec 2023Tottenham4–1Newcastle
23 Apr 2023Newcastle6–1Tottenham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Tottenham	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.40
Conceded per game	1.40	1.44
Match goals	2.80	2.84	3.18
Over 1.5	84%	72%
Over 2.5	64%	60%	62%
Over 3.5	28%	40%
Both teams scored	56%	60%	64%
Clean sheets	28%	28%
Failed to score	20%	28%
Games	25	25

	Tottenham	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.40
Conceded per game	1.70	1.70
Match goals	2.70	3.10	3.18
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	62%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	64%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tottenham	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.48	6.72
Corners conceded	4.70	5.20
Match total	10.18	11.92	9.98
Over 8.5	57% 13/23	80% 20/25
Over 9.5	52% 12/23	68% 17/25
Over 10.5	43% 10/23	60% 15/25
Cards
Cards	2.68	1.56
Opponent cards	1.80	2.32
Match total	4.48	3.88	3.86
Over 3.5	68% 17/25	52% 13/25
Over 4.5	56% 14/25	28% 7/25

	Tottenham	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	6.40
Corners conceded	3.63	4.30
Match total	8.13	10.70	9.98
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.70
Opponent cards	1.90	2.30
Match total	4.30	4.00	3.86
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73league 3.72

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+35%league 38%

Fouls20.9league 21.3

Penalties0.25league 0.22

Home wins36%league 44%

Tottenham16 with this referee

Record8-3-5 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.4 Pens for · against2 · 5 Reds1

L13 Apr 25A · Wolves2–42
L8 Dec 24H · Chelsea3–42
W24 Aug 24H · Everton4–00
L17 Feb 24H · Wolves1–20
W23 Oct 23H · Fulham2–02

Newcastle14 with this referee

Record7-1-6 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L26 Dec 25A · Manchester United0–11
W26 Dec 24H · Aston Villa3–02
W10 Nov 24A · Nottingham Forest3–11
W4 May 24A · Burnley4–12
W10 Feb 24A · Nottingham Forest3–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.