Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel387 kmRest days7 · 1.8Matches / 14d2 · 4
Real contextStrength only
Tottenham—%
Draw—%
Sunderland—%
Weather (London)
Forecast from 15 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Tottenham and Sunderland. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Tottenham
Sunderland
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
56
AttackIn forecast
62
74
DefenceIn forecast
59
58
Form indexContext
56
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamSunderland
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.04
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.65
43%
Scored inContext
57%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.14
ShotsContext
11.57
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
27%
On target shareContext
35%
8.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
60%
Box shareContext
62%
6%
ConversionContext
7%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.83
14.14
Shots allowedContext
14.57
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.00
BlocksContext
4.29
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
63%
Save rateContext
46%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
535
PassesContext
400
470
Accurate passesContext
316
88%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.62
13.86
FoulsContext
11.43
13.71
Fouls sufferedContext
14.14
1.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.56
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.40
ShotsContext
14.40
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
24%
On target shareContext
30%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
67%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
8%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.90
Shots allowedContext
12.40
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
3.40
BlocksContext
3.90
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
64%
Save rateContext
52%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
510
PassesContext
395
443
Accurate passesContext
316
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.71
14.20
FoulsContext
12.70
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
DDLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 6 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
Sunderland
WLLWL
Rest1.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel387 km1,958 km in 14d
Schedule load61%Critical
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Critical · 61 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Jan | 1.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 28 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,958 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 2 / 4 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Last XI · not confirmed
31A. Kinský(G)
3A. Robertson
37M. van de Ven
4T. Adarabioyo
6J. van Hecke
16S. Tonali
14A. Gray
22O. Marmoush
10J. Maddison
20M. Kudus
19D. Solanke
Sunderland
Last XI · not confirmed
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
4K. Danso
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée
11C. Rigg
32T. Hume
57T. Tuterov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sunderland
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Sunderland · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Tottenham wins1 draws1 Sunderland wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 12 Apr 2026Sunderland1–0Tottenham
- 4 Jan 2026Tottenham1–1Sunderland
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.86 | |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Tottenham | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.70 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.57 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.43 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.72 | 3.85 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Tottenham | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.10 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 9.20 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.60 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Tottenham7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
Sunderland7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
1
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
Next fixtures Premier League
View all fixtures →
Newcastle
Brighton
Jan 3015:00
Bournemouth
Fulham
Jan 3015:00
Liverpool
Everton
Jan 3015:00
Tottenham
Sunderland
Jan 3015:00
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
Jan 3015:00
Manchester City
Arsenal
Jan 3015:00
Brentford
Manchester United
Jan 3015:00
Hull City
Crystal Palace
Jan 3015:00
Aston Villa
Ipswich
Jan 3015:00
Coventry
Leeds
Jan 3015:00