Premier League Gameweek 23 Sat, Jan 30 · 15:00 The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry, West Midlands
Coventry 17th · 6 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Leeds 7th · 10 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel155 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Coventry—%
Draw—%
Leeds—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Coventry, West Midlands)

Forecast from 15 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Coventry and Leeds. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

CoventryLeeds
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
51 Current StrengthIn forecast 73
47 AttackIn forecast 69
59 DefenceIn forecast 77
64 Form indexContext 64
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Coventry

Attack—
Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

CoventryLeeds
0.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86
1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.36
1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36
-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.07
43% Scored inContext 86%
14% Clean sheetsContext 29%
10.29 ShotsContext 12.00
3.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
32% On target shareContext 33%
7.14 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
64% Box shareContext 65%
8% ConversionContext 11%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.43
17.43 Shots allowedContext 14.00
4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
6.83 BlocksContext 5.17
2.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43
46% Save rateContext 86%
38% PossessionIn forecast 47%
323 PassesContext 385
247 Accurate passesContext 302
77% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.89
11.00 FoulsContext 12.71
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86
1.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.86
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.29
1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65
+0.61 Goals minus xGContext -0.19
60% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.70 ShotsContext 11.50
3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60
33% On target shareContext 31%
7.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.33
62% Box shareContext 62%
15% ConversionContext 10%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.40
15.20 Shots allowedContext 14.90
4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
5.78 BlocksContext 4.89
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
49% Save rateContext 77%
45% PossessionIn forecast 46%
380 PassesContext 376
304 Accurate passesContext 292
80% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.91 Team ratingContext 6.92
9.70 FoulsContext 11.90
11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30
1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Coventry
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km556 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L19 OctA · Tottenham1–31.0 xPts
  • W12 OctH · Newcastle4–11.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Nottingham Forest1–00.7 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Brighton0–51.1 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Manchester City0–10.3 xPts
Leeds
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel155 km544 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Manchester United1–11.6 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Crystal Palace0–01.9 xPts
  • W14 SepH · Newcastle4–11.7 xPts
  • D5 SepA · Brighton1–10.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Coventry Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Jan7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km155 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways556 km544 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Coventry Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Tottenham (A) 1–3, 19 Oct
19C. Rushworth(G)
3J. Dasilva 2E. Pinnock 4B. Thomas 27M. van Ewijk
6M. Grimes 8C. Yirenkyi
23S. Thomas-Asante 5J. Rudoni 7T. Sakamoto
49S. Chérif
Leeds Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester United (H) 1–1, 18 Oct
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović 30N. Elvedi 24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor 18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Coventry Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Leeds Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Coventry · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.33
Leeds · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentCoventryLeeds
Newcastle W 4–1 H W 4–1 H
Nottingham Forest W 1–0 A W 1–0 A
Brighton L 0–5 H D 1–1 A
Arsenal L 0–3 A L 1–2 A
Points6 of 12 · 1.50 per game7 of 12 · 1.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Coventry wins1 draws2 Leeds wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.75 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 5 Feb 2025Coventry0–2Leeds
  • 28 Sep 2024Leeds3–0Coventry
  • 6 Apr 2024Coventry2–1Leeds
  • 16 Dec 2023Leeds1–1Coventry

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

CoventryLeedsForecast
Scored per game 0.861.29
Conceded per game 2.000.86
Match goals 2.862.14
Over 1.5 57%71%
Over 2.5 57%29%
Over 3.5 43%14%
Both teams scored 29%71%
Clean sheets 14%29%
Failed to score 57%14%
Games77
CoventryLeedsForecast
Scored per game 0.861.10
Conceded per game 2.001.00
Match goals 2.862.10
Over 1.5 57%70%
Over 2.5 57%30%
Over 3.5 43%10%
Both teams scored 29%60%
Clean sheets 14%30%
Failed to score 57%20%
Games710

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

CoventryLeedsLeague
Corners
Corners won3.714.00
Corners conceded4.714.14
Match total8.428.149.49
Over 8.529% 2/743% 3/7
Over 9.514% 1/743% 3/7
Over 10.50% 0/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.291.86
Opponent cards1.432.43
Match total2.724.294.17
Over 3.529% 2/771% 5/7
Over 4.514% 1/743% 3/7
CoventryLeedsLeague
Corners
Corners won3.564.10
Corners conceded4.225.70
Match total7.789.809.49
Over 8.522% 2/960% 6/10
Over 9.511% 1/960% 6/10
Over 10.50% 0/940% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.201.80
Opponent cards1.502.00
Match total2.703.804.17
Over 3.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Over 4.510% 1/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Coventry7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Leeds7 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 46-60
3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Coventry10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
6 3 46-60
3 61-75
7 4 76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Newcastle Brighton Jan 3015:00 Bournemouth Fulham Jan 3015:00 Liverpool Everton Jan 3015:00 Tottenham Sunderland Jan 3015:00 Chelsea Nottingham Forest Jan 3015:00 Manchester City Arsenal Jan 3015:00 Brentford Manchester United Jan 3015:00 Hull City Crystal Palace Jan 3015:00 Aston Villa Ipswich Jan 3015:00 Coventry Leeds Jan 3015:00