Premier League Gameweek 23 Sat, Jan 30 · 15:00 Stamford Bridge, London
Chelsea 4th · 13 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Nottingham Forest 19th · 5 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel175 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Chelsea—%
Draw—%
Nottingham Forest—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 15 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Chelsea and Nottingham Forest. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

ChelseaNottingham Forest
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 70
77 AttackIn forecast 68
74 DefenceIn forecast 74
69 Form indexContext 41
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—
Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ChelseaNottingham Forest
2.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71
1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
+1.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.85
86% Scored inContext 43%
14% Clean sheetsContext 14%
14.29 ShotsContext 17.14
5.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57
39% On target shareContext 21%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 10.43
63% Box shareContext 61%
17% ConversionContext 4%
1.60 OffsidesContext 2.33
12.43 Shots allowedContext 10.57
5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.83
3.67 BlocksContext 3.00
4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
73% Save rateContext 68%
47% PossessionIn forecast 46%
432 PassesContext 370
361 Accurate passesContext 292
84% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.09 Team ratingContext 6.79
9.29 FoulsContext 14.14
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 11.57
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53
+0.90 Goals minus xGContext -0.66
90% Scored inContext 60%
10% Clean sheetsContext 10%
12.30 ShotsContext 16.30
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
40% On target shareContext 25%
7.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
60% Box shareContext 65%
17% ConversionContext 6%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.11
12.50 Shots allowedContext 13.60
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56
3.44 BlocksContext 4.40
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
74% Save rateContext 70%
48% PossessionIn forecast 46%
442 PassesContext 388
370 Accurate passesContext 309
84% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.00 Team ratingContext 6.81
10.50 FoulsContext 13.10
13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km544 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Everton2–01.3 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Bournemouth5–11.5 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Brentford0–31.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Hull City2–22.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
Nottingham Forest
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel175 km186 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 4 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Arsenal0–10.9 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Crystal Palace1–31.4 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Coventry0–12.1 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Aston Villa2–11.0 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Tottenham0–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Chelsea Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Jan7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km175 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways544 km186 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Everton (A) 2–0, 17 Oct
1E. Martínez(G)
21J. Hato 6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong
14J. Henderson 25M. Caicedo
17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto
9João Pedro
Nottingham Forest Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Arsenal (H) 0–1, 18 Oct
26M. Sels(G)
5Murillo 2O. Diomande 23Jair
3N. Williams 21X. Schlager 24J. McAtee 27D. Muñoz
14D. Ndoye 8N. Domínguez
19L. Delap

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Chelsea Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Nottingham Forest Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
3.67
Conceded
2.00
Nottingham Forest · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.67
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentChelseaNottingham Forest
Arsenal L 1–2 A L 0–1 H
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Chelsea wins3 draws2 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.25 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 13%
  • 4 May 2026Chelsea1–3Nottingham Forest
  • 18 Oct 2025Nottingham Forest0–3Chelsea
  • 25 May 2025Nottingham Forest0–1Chelsea
  • 6 Oct 2024Chelsea1–1Nottingham Forest
  • 11 May 2024Nottingham Forest2–3Chelsea
  • 2 Sep 2023Chelsea0–1Nottingham Forest

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ChelseaNottingham ForestForecast
Scored per game 2.430.71
Conceded per game 1.861.29
Match goals 4.292.00
Over 1.5 100%43%
Over 2.5 86%43%
Over 3.5 57%29%
Both teams scored 71%43%
Clean sheets 14%14%
Failed to score 14%57%
Games77
ChelseaNottingham ForestForecast
Scored per game 2.100.90
Conceded per game 1.701.40
Match goals 3.802.30
Over 1.5 100%60%
Over 2.5 80%40%
Over 3.5 40%30%
Both teams scored 80%60%
Clean sheets 10%10%
Failed to score 10%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ChelseaNottingham ForestLeague
Corners
Corners won5.864.71
Corners conceded5.434.86
Match total11.299.579.49
Over 8.571% 5/743% 3/7
Over 9.571% 5/743% 3/7
Over 10.557% 4/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.862.29
Opponent cards3.001.71
Match total4.864.004.17
Over 3.586% 6/757% 4/7
Over 4.557% 4/729% 2/7
ChelseaNottingham ForestLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.70
Corners conceded5.304.50
Match total10.109.209.49
Over 8.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 9.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 10.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.602.00
Opponent cards3.101.50
Match total5.703.504.17
Over 3.590% 9/1040% 4/10
Over 4.570% 7/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Chelsea7 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
7 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
1 3 76-90
Nottingham Forest7 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
7 1 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 4 46-60
5 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 5 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Newcastle Brighton Jan 3015:00 Bournemouth Fulham Jan 3015:00 Liverpool Everton Jan 3015:00 Tottenham Sunderland Jan 3015:00 Chelsea Nottingham Forest Jan 3015:00 Manchester City Arsenal Jan 3015:00 Brentford Manchester United Jan 3015:00 Hull City Crystal Palace Jan 3015:00 Aston Villa Ipswich Jan 3015:00 Coventry Leeds Jan 3015:00