Tottenham vs Wolves – 27 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 6 Sat, Sep 27 · 20:00 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Tottenham 7th · 10 pts · 5 played WWLWD

1–1Full time

Wolves 20th · 0 pts · 5 played LLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Tottenham were clear favourites.

Tottenham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 48). Tottenham had 7.2 days of rest, Wolves 7.2 and had to travel 182 km.

Away travel182 kmRest days7.2 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Tottenham60%

Draw22%

Wolves18%

Expected goals 2.02 – 1.02

Tottenham58%

Draw23%

Wolves18%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.96

Tottenham60%

Draw22%

Wolves18%

Expected goals 2.01 – 1.02

Tottenham52%

Draw24%

Wolves23%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.14

Tottenham58%

Draw23%

Wolves18%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.95

Over 2.5 58% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Salisbury

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 72

Team strength

Tottenham

Wolves

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

56 AttackIn forecast 41

74 DefenceIn forecast 46

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tottenham

Wolves

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.54

+0.77 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

80% Scored inContext 40%

60% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.60 ShotsContext 10.20

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

35% On target shareContext 33%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

74% Box shareContext 67%

17% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.67

12.60 Shots allowedContext 12.20

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.00 BlocksContext 4.50

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

86% Save rateContext 50%

59% PossessionIn forecast 48%

475 PassesContext 415

407 Accurate passesContext 331

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.08 Team ratingContext 6.62

12.60 FoulsContext 14.40

9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

70% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

8.50 ShotsContext 11.70

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

31% On target shareContext 31%

7.13 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

71% Box shareContext 66%

15% ConversionContext 8%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.40

15.00 Shots allowedContext 11.10

5.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.22 BlocksContext 3.13

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

77% Save rateContext 62%

49% PossessionIn forecast 51%

391 PassesContext 450

322 Accurate passesContext 374

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.80

13.50 FoulsContext 11.20

9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tottenham

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km143 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Wolves

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel182 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tottenham	Wolves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep	7.2Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	182 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	143 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.7	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Vicario(G)

13I. Udogie 37M. van de Ven 17C. Romero 24D. Spence

30R. Bentancur 6João Palhinha

7X. Simons 15L. Bergvall 20M. Kudus

9Richarlison

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Wolves Confirmed XI

4-3-3

31S. Johnstone(G)

3Hugo Bueno 37L. Krejčí 4S. Bueno 2M. Doherty

8João Gomes 7André 5M. Munetsi

11H. Hwang 9J. Strand Larsen 10J. Arias

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tottenham Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Wolves Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tottenham+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Wolves-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Tottenham · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Wolves · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Tottenham	Wolves
Bournemouth	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Manchester City	W 2–0 A	L 0–4 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Tottenham wins2 draws5 Wolves wins

Goals per game1.10 – 1.40 Over 2.540% Both scored50% Clean sheets30% · 20%

13 Apr 2025Wolves4–2Tottenham
29 Dec 2024Tottenham2–2Wolves
17 Feb 2024Tottenham1–2Wolves
11 Nov 2023Wolves2–1Tottenham
4 Mar 2023Wolves1–0Tottenham
20 Aug 2022Tottenham1–0Wolves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Tottenham	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.60
Conceded per game	0.60	2.40
Match goals	2.60	3.00	3.04
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	58%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	20%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	60%	0%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	5	5

	Tottenham	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.60
Conceded per game	0.60	2.40
Match goals	2.60	3.00	3.04
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	58%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	20%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	60%	0%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tottenham	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	7.75	3.25
Corners conceded	4.00	6.00
Match total	11.75	9.25	9.81
Over 8.5	100% 4/4	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.20
Opponent cards	1.40	1.40
Match total	3.20	3.60	3.87
Over 3.5	40% 2/5	40% 2/5
Over 4.5	40% 2/5	40% 2/5

	Tottenham	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	4.50
Corners conceded	5.67	4.63
Match total	10.56	9.13	9.81
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.70
Opponent cards	1.80	1.40
Match total	4.00	3.10	3.87
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Salisbury 72 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.50league 3.71

Red cards0.22league 0.16

Cards 5+35%league 39%

Fouls22.1league 22.1

Penalties0.25league 0.21

Home wins50%league 46%

Tottenham4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W6 Apr 25H · Southampton3–11
L7 Dec 23H · West Ham1–23
L11 Feb 23A · Leicester1–42
W12 Nov 22H · Leeds4–31

Wolves5 with this referee

Record2-0-3 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.4 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

W22 Feb 25A · Bournemouth1–03
L27 Nov 23A · Fulham2–32
L18 Mar 23H · Leeds2–45
L18 Feb 23H · Bournemouth0–13
W15 Jan 22H · Southampton3–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.