Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 36). Toulouse had 6.9 days of rest, Strasbourg 6.2 and had to travel 736 km.
Away travel736 kmRest days6.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Toulouse35%
Draw28%
Strasbourg38%
Toulouse36%
Draw27%
Strasbourg37%
Toulouse35%
Draw28%
Strasbourg37%
Toulouse28%
Draw27%
Strasbourg45%
Toulouse35%
Draw27%
Strasbourg37%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 77
Team strength
Toulouse
Strasbourg
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
45
AttackIn forecast
40
49
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseStrasbourg
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.79
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
71%
Scored inContext
93%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
12.79
ShotsContext
11.07
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.36
30%
On target shareContext
39%
9.92
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
73%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.69
11.57
Shots allowedContext
10.43
3.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.23
3.92
BlocksContext
3.27
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.92
61%
Save rateContext
69%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
344
PassesContext
492
278
Accurate passesContext
429
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.64
FoulsContext
11.71
11.14
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.21
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.90
ShotsContext
12.30
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
28%
On target shareContext
37%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
77%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.44
10.00
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.11
BlocksContext
3.86
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
67%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
358
PassesContext
526
291
Accurate passesContext
461
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.86
14.70
FoulsContext
11.10
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km639 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Strasbourg
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel736 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 736 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 639 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
3M. McKenzie
24D. Methalie
23C. Cásseres
45A. Vossah
19D. Sidibé
9F. Magri
10G. Gboho
20Emersonn
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
23M. Sarr
2A. Omobamidele
22G. Doué
3B. Chilwell
6I. Doukouré
29S. El Mourabet
7Diego Moreira
19J. Enciso
11A. Nanasi
9J. Panichelli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Strasbourg+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-2
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 1.57
Strasbourg · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 2.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Angers | L 0–1 H | W 5–0 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Rennes | D 2–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Monaco | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Metz | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lyon | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Nantes | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Auxerre | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Lille | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 3–6 H | D 3–3 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 13 of 36 · 1.08 per game | 19 of 36 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Toulouse wins2 draws3 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 33%
- 16 Mar 2025Strasbourg2–1Toulouse
- 12 Jan 2025Toulouse1–2Strasbourg
- 7 Apr 2024Toulouse0–0Strasbourg
- 27 Aug 2023Strasbourg2–0Toulouse
- 29 Jan 2023Strasbourg1–2Toulouse
- 23 Oct 2022Toulouse2–2Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 3.14 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 64% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 7% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Toulouse | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.29 | 4.15 | |
| Match total | 10.15 | 7.15 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 10/14 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 9/14 | 15% 2/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 8/14 | 15% 2/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.93 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 4.07 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 10/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Toulouse | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 6.63 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.90 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.72
Red cards0.25league 0.32
Cards 5+30%league 36%
Fouls24.5league 24.0
Penalties0.25league 0.48
Home wins49%league 50%
Toulouse6 with this referee
Record2-0-4
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L7 Dec 24A · Monaco0–22
- L31 Aug 24H · Marseille1–35
- W3 Jun 23A · Monaco2–12
- L2 Apr 23A · Stade Brestois 291–35
- L19 Feb 23H · Marseille2–30
Strasbourg9 with this referee
Record2-3-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- L2 Feb 25A · Rennes0–13
- D6 Oct 24H · Lens2–22
- D3 Mar 24A · Montpellier2–23
- L6 Oct 23H · Nantes1–23
- W16 Apr 23H · Ajaccio3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Toulouse14 games · scored 20 · conceded 19
3
4
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
9
3
76-90
Strasbourg14 games · scored 25 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
6
1
61-75
7
8
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
