Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were slight favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 28). Udinese had 2.9 days of rest, Atalanta 3.8 and had to travel 279 km.
Away travel279 kmRest days2.9 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Udinese21%
Draw26%
Atalanta54%
Udinese21%
Draw25%
Atalanta54%
Udinese21%
Draw26%
Atalanta53%
Udinese16%
Draw23%
Atalanta61%
Udinese21%
Draw24%
Atalanta55%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 59
Team strength
Udinese
Atalanta
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
22
AttackIn forecast
48
18
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseAtalanta
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.78
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
89%
Scored inContext
89%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
11.44
ShotsContext
15.56
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
31%
On target shareContext
31%
6.63
Shots in the boxContext
10.11
56%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.80
12.67
Shots allowedContext
10.44
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
2.67
BlocksContext
3.25
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
65%
Save rateContext
85%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
372
PassesContext
489
306
Accurate passesContext
420
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.44
FoulsContext
9.78
12.22
Fouls sufferedContext
8.67
2.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.50
ShotsContext
15.60
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
30%
On target shareContext
28%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
57%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.83
13.90
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.50
BlocksContext
3.44
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
67%
Save rateContext
80%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
365
PassesContext
463
299
Accurate passesContext
395
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.70
FoulsContext
9.10
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,434 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Atalanta
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel279 km137 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Atalanta |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Oct | 3.8Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 279 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,434 km | 137 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
13N. Bertola
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
8J. Karlström
32J. Ekkelenkamp
59A. Zanoli
18A. Buksa
10N. Zaniolo
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
19B. Djimsiti
4I. Hien
3K. Kossounou
59N. Zalewski
8M. Pašalić
13Éderson
77D. Zappacosta
7K. Sulemana
10L. Samardžić
9G. Scamacca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Atalanta
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Atalanta+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.75
Atalanta · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Lecce | W 3–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Udinese wins5 draws3 Atalanta wins
Goals per game0.88 – 1.75
Over 2.538%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 38%
- 11 Jan 2025Udinese0–0Atalanta
- 10 Nov 2024Atalanta2–1Udinese
- 27 Jan 2024Atalanta2–0Udinese
- 12 Nov 2023Udinese1–1Atalanta
- 4 Mar 2023Atalanta0–0Udinese
- 9 Oct 2022Udinese2–2Atalanta
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.78 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 2.22 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 22% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 78% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Udinese | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.78 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 2.22 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 22% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 78% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 7.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 10.88 | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.44 | 1.22 | |
| Match total | 3.88 | 2.89 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Udinese | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 6.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 10.45 | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.70 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.94
Red cards0.32league 0.12
Cards 5+36%league 39%
Fouls24.2league 26.0
Penalties0.12league 0.29
Home wins34%league 38%
Udinese5 with this referee
Record0-4-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D20 Oct 25A · Cremonese1–12
- D1 Apr 24A · Sassuolo1–12
- D23 Dec 23A · Torino1–12
- D6 Oct 23A · Empoli0–02
- L9 Jan 22H · Atalanta2–62
Atalanta2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W28 Apr 24H · Empoli2–01
- W9 Jan 22A · Udinese6–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese9 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Atalanta9 games · scored 13 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
