Udinese vs Inter – 17 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 21 Sat, Jan 17 · 14:00 Bluenergy Stadium, Udine

Udinese 10th · 26 pts · 20 played LDLWD

0–1Full time

Inter 1st · 46 pts · 20 played WWWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter were clear favourites.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 30). Inter come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Udinese had 7 days of rest, Inter 2.8 and had to travel 321 km.

Away travel321 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 4

Udinese15%

Draw22%

Inter63%

Expected goals 0.81 – 1.92

Udinese13%

Draw20%

Inter67%

Expected goals 0.83 – 2.15

Udinese15%

Draw23%

Inter63%

Expected goals 0.81 – 1.91

Udinese11%

Draw19%

Inter70%

Expected goals 0.73 – 2.15

Udinese13%

Draw20%

Inter67%

Expected goals 0.84 – 2.15

Over 2.5 51% Both score 48% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Udine)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 69

Team strength

Udinese

Inter

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 85

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

22 AttackIn forecast 91

18 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Udinese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Udinese

Inter

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.15

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.85

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.83

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

80% Scored inContext 95%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.70 ShotsContext 17.55

3.79 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

31% On target shareContext 33%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.95

58% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.93 OffsidesContext 2.11

12.25 Shots allowedContext 8.45

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.18

3.25 BlocksContext 3.00

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.47

62% Save rateContext 79%

46% PossessionIn forecast 59%

356 PassesContext 522

286 Accurate passesContext 454

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.78 Team ratingContext 7.05

13.45 FoulsContext 14.25

11.95 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.85 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.10 ShotsContext 16.20

3.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

29% On target shareContext 36%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 10.80

63% Box shareContext 67%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.10

12.60 Shots allowedContext 8.90

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

3.70 BlocksContext 2.78

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

58% Save rateContext 75%

46% PossessionIn forecast 56%

350 PassesContext 498

274 Accurate passesContext 429

78% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.99

14.40 FoulsContext 14.30

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Udinese

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km892 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Inter

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel321 km232 km in 14d

Schedule load49%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Udinese	Inter
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	High · 49
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	Yes
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2025-2026, 10 Jan	2.8Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	321 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	892 km	232 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	2 / 4 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	9.2	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Udinese Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40M. Okoye(G)

28O. Solet 27C. Kabasele 31T. Kristensen

11H. Kamara 24J. Piotrowski 8J. Karlström 59A. Zanoli

32J. Ekkelenkamp 14A. Atta

9K. Davis

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Y. Sommer(G)

30Carlos Augusto 25M. Akanji 31Y. Bisseck

32F. Dimarco 22H. Mkhitaryan 7P. Zieliński 23N. Barella 11L. de Lima

94F. Esposito 10L. Martínez

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Udinese Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Inter Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Udinese+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Inter+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Udinese · Home 1.30points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 3-4-3
Scored: 1.10
Conceded: 1.50

Inter · Away 2.33points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 7-0-2
Scored: 1.78
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Udinese	Inter
Pisa	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A	W 2–0 A
Torino	W 2–1 A	W 5–0 H
Como	L 0–1 A	W 4–0 H
Lazio	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 H
Fiorentina	L 1–5 A	W 3–0 H
Napoli	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A
Genoa	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 A
Parma	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 A
Bologna	L 0–3 H	W 3–1 H
AS Roma	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 A
Atalanta	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Juventus	L 1–3 A	L 3–4 A
Lecce	W 3–2 H	W 1–0 H
Cremonese	D 1–1 A	W 4–1 H
Cagliari	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 A
Sassuolo	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 H
AC Milan	L 0–3 H	L 0–1 H
Verona	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 A
Points	23 of 57 · 1.21 per game	46 of 57 · 2.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Udinese wins0 draws7 Inter wins

Goals per game1.22 – 2.22 Over 2.589% Both scored78% Clean sheets0% · 22%

31 Aug 2025Inter1–2Udinese
30 Mar 2025Inter2–1Udinese
28 Sep 2024Udinese2–3Inter
8 Apr 2024Udinese1–2Inter
9 Dec 2023Inter4–0Udinese
18 Feb 2023Inter3–1Udinese

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Udinese	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	2.15
Conceded per game	1.60	0.85
Match goals	2.70	3.00	2.73
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	25%	35%
Both teams scored	60%	45%	48%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	20%	5%
Games	20	20

	Udinese	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.90
Conceded per game	1.70	0.50
Match goals	2.70	2.40	2.73
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	51%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	48%
Clean sheets	20%	60%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Udinese	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	4.53	6.75
Corners conceded	4.37	2.70
Match total	8.90	9.45	8.79
Over 8.5	42% 8/19	65% 13/20
Over 9.5	37% 7/19	55% 11/20
Over 10.5	37% 7/19	40% 8/20
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.50
Opponent cards	1.70	1.65
Match total	3.60	3.15	3.99
Over 3.5	55% 11/20	25% 5/20
Over 4.5	30% 6/20	15% 3/20

	Udinese	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	6.20
Corners conceded	3.40	2.70
Match total	8.10	8.90	8.79
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.70
Opponent cards	1.80	1.60
Match total	3.30	3.30	3.99
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 69 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.04league 3.85

Red cards0.19league 0.17

Cards 5+48%league 37%

Fouls26.2league 25.7

Penalties0.41league 0.31

Home wins35%league 37%

Udinese5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.4 Pens for · against0 · 4

L29 Oct 25A · Juventus1–34
L10 Nov 24A · Atalanta1–21
L9 Dec 23A · Inter0–41
W26 Aug 22A · Monza2–12
D13 Mar 22H · AS Roma1–13

Inter5 with this referee

Record5-0-0 Cards · opp.0.6 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 0

W6 Dec 25H · Como4–01
W12 Apr 25H · Cagliari3–10
W9 Dec 23H · Udinese4–00
W22 May 22H · Sampdoria3–01
W4 Dec 21A · AS Roma3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.