Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union Berlin
8th · 15 pts · 11 played
WLDDW
1–2Full time
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 5 pts · 11 played
DLDLL
Our take
Union Berlin were slight favourites.
Union Berlin were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 26). Union Berlin had 5.9 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 7 and had to travel 486 km.
Away travel486 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Union Berlin56%
Draw24%
1. FC Heidenheim20%
Union Berlin56%
Draw24%
1. FC Heidenheim20%
Union Berlin56%
Draw24%
1. FC Heidenheim20%
Union Berlin48%
Draw26%
1. FC Heidenheim26%
Union Berlin56%
Draw24%
1. FC Heidenheim20%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
RefereePatrick Ittrich
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 37
Team strength
Union Berlin1. FC Heidenheim
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
42
AttackIn forecast
48
41
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union Berlin1. FC Heidenheim
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.73
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.36
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.83
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
55%
Scored inContext
55%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.55
ShotsContext
10.09
3.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
30%
On target shareContext
35%
8.09
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
71%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
15.91
4.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.55
4.30
BlocksContext
3.91
3.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.36
69%
Save rateContext
61%
34%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
284
PassesContext
344
201
Accurate passesContext
269
71%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.91
FoulsContext
10.09
10.91
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.55
Yellow cardsContext
1.55
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
50%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.90
ShotsContext
10.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
30%
On target shareContext
36%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
70%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.40
Shots allowedContext
16.10
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
4.22
BlocksContext
4.20
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
63%
34%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
293
PassesContext
341
209
Accurate passesContext
265
71%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.10
FoulsContext
10.20
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km511 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel486 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
1. FC Heidenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 486 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 511 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
28C. Trimmel
10Ilyas Ansah
11W. Jeong
7O. Burke
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
5B. Gimber
6P. Mainka
27T. Keller
19J. Föhrenbach
30N. Dorsch
16J. Niehues
2M. Busch
21A. Beck
17M. Honsak
18M. Pieringer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.50points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.33
1. FC Heidenheim · Away
0.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-5
- Scored
- 0.40
- Conceded
- 2.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | 1. FC Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | L 0–6 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 4–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–4 H | L 1–3 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 10 of 24 · 1.25 per game | 2 of 24 · 0.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Union Berlin wins1 draws3 1. FC Heidenheim wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets0% · 75%
- 10 May 2025Union Berlin0–31. FC Heidenheim
- 11 Jan 20251. FC Heidenheim2–0Union Berlin
- 24 Feb 2024Union Berlin2–21. FC Heidenheim
- 30 Sep 20231. FC Heidenheim1–0Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 0.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 2.36 | |
| Match goals | 2.82 | 3.09 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 64% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 55% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 45% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Union Berlin | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.73 | 4.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.09 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 9.82 | 8.91 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 8/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 7/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.73 | 1.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.18 | 2.36 | |
| Match total | 4.91 | 4.00 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 6/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Union Berlin | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.10 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.90 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Patrick Ittrich 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.95
Red cards0.05league 0.20
Cards 5+35%league 40%
Fouls26.2league 21.7
Penalties0.30league 0.35
Home wins51%league 44%
Union Berlin5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L7 Oct 23A · Borussia Dortmund2–41
- W26 Aug 23A · SV Darmstadt 984–12
- W27 May 23H · Werder Bremen1–01
- D29 Apr 22H · SpVgg Greuther Fürth1–12
- L5 Mar 22A · VfL Wolfsburg0–11
1. FC Heidenheim3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D18 Oct 25H · Werder Bremen2–21
- D13 Apr 24A · VfL Bochum1–11
- W17 Sep 23H · Werder Bremen4–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin11 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim11 games · scored 8 · conceded 26
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
6
31-45
2
6
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 7 · conceded 23
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
6
31-45
2
6
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
