Union Berlin
Attack−24%
Defense risk+20%
Union Berlin
16th · 4 pts · 5 played
DLLLW
0–0Full time
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 13 pts · 5 played
WWWWD
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Union Berlin. Union Berlin were without E. Latte Lath. Union Berlin had 7 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 2.8 and had to travel 422 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel422 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Union Berlin21%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund57%
Union Berlin19%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund57%
Union Berlin22%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund56%
Union Berlin16%
Draw19%
Borussia Dortmund65%
Union Berlin22%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund55%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–2
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
11°CLight rain
- Precipitation 0.2 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 85%
Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 99
Team strength
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
42
AttackIn forecast
69
41
DefenceIn forecast
80
33
Form indexContext
77
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack+12%
Defense risk−17%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
3.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
2.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.20
ShotsContext
15.80
6.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
41%
On target shareContext
37%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.60
68%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.60
16.40
Shots allowedContext
11.80
8.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.75
BlocksContext
2.75
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
54%
Save rateContext
78%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
362
PassesContext
522
272
Accurate passesContext
440
75%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.61
Team ratingContext
7.10
11.40
FoulsContext
11.00
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.60
ShotsContext
14.10
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
40%
On target shareContext
40%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
65%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.80
Shots allowedContext
11.30
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
4.43
BlocksContext
2.78
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
55%
Save rateContext
76%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
381
PassesContext
522
293
Accurate passesContext
446
77%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.00
10.20
FoulsContext
11.30
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
DLLLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 33 · 4 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Borussia Dortmund
WWWDL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel422 km3,588 km in 14d
Schedule load24%Moderate
Form 77 · 10 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 24 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 422 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 3,588 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe
2O. Uduokhai
4Z. Van Den Bosch
19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer
20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri
11W. Jeong
8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
7J. Bellingham
26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier
18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −24.9% · Defence line −3.3% of weighted minutes
- ATT E. Latte Lath Starter 6.51 Att −16.3%
- ATT A. Ilić Rotation 6.61 Att −8.7%
- DEF S. Nsoki Rotation 6.58 Def −1.9%
- DEF J. Juranović Rotation 6.85 Def −1.4%
Borussia Dortmund
Attack line −2.2% · Defence line −0.9% of weighted minutes
- MID E. Can Rotation 7.01 Att −1.9% Def −0.8%
- MID G. Konstantelias Depth 6.90 Att −0.3% Def −0.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Borussia Dortmund+0.9 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Borussia Dortmund · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Union Berlin wins0 draws8 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game0.90 – 2.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets10% · 50%
- 24 Jan 2026Union Berlin0–3Borussia Dortmund
- 31 Aug 2025Borussia Dortmund3–0Union Berlin
- 22 Feb 2025Borussia Dortmund6–0Union Berlin
- 5 Oct 2024Union Berlin2–1Borussia Dortmund
- 2 Mar 2024Union Berlin0–2Borussia Dortmund
- 7 Oct 2023Borussia Dortmund4–2Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 3.00 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.10 | 2.90 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.40 | 10.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.40 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.50 | 10.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 99 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.21league 3.46
Red cards0.22league 0.11
Cards 5+48%league 17%
Fouls22.2league 22.6
Penalties0.27league 0.13
Home wins54%league 52%
Union Berlin13 with this referee
Record4-3-6
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D2 May 26H · 1.FC Köln2–22
- W12 Dec 25H · RB Leipzig3–12
- L24 Oct 25A · Werder Bremen0–10
- L31 Aug 25A · Borussia Dortmund0–30
- D1 Feb 25H · RB Leipzig0–03
Borussia Dortmund10 with this referee
Record8-1-1
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.5
Pens for · against4 · 2
- D9 Jan 26A · Eintracht Frankfurt3–33
- W31 Aug 25H · Union Berlin3–00
- W30 Mar 25H · FSV Mainz 053–12
- L17 Jan 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–22
- W20 Jan 24A · 1.FC Köln4–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin5 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Borussia Dortmund5 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 16 · conceded 25
2
4
0-15
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
6
61-75
10
2
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
8
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
