Bundesliga Gameweek 24 Tue, Mar 2 · 19:30 Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
FC Augsburg 10th · 8 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel495 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Union Berlin—%
Draw—%
FC Augsburg—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Berlin)

Forecast from 15 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union Berlin and FC Augsburg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Union BerlinFC Augsburg
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
39 Current StrengthIn forecast 50
42 AttackIn forecast 72
41 DefenceIn forecast 23
38 Form indexContext 46
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union Berlin

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Augsburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union BerlinFC Augsburg
0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
2.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.17 xGVia Att/Def 2.15
2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.95
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.52
50% Scored inContext 100%
33% Clean sheetsContext 17%
12.83 ShotsContext 15.67
6.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
35% On target shareContext 45%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.67
64% Box shareContext 72%
7% ConversionContext 17%
2.60 OffsidesContext 1.75
15.67 Shots allowedContext 21.83
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.83
4.20 BlocksContext 6.17
4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50
56% Save rateContext 70%
44% PossessionIn forecast 42%
359 PassesContext 372
268 Accurate passesContext 288
75% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.58 Team ratingContext 7.01
11.67 FoulsContext 9.83
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 2.02
2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.25
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.28
70% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
12.30 ShotsContext 15.10
5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30
38% On target shareContext 42%
8.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.10
63% Box shareContext 72%
12% ConversionContext 15%
2.43 OffsidesContext 1.88
14.50 Shots allowedContext 19.20
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80
4.13 BlocksContext 5.50
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80
57% Save rateContext 71%
45% PossessionIn forecast 41%
372 PassesContext 356
285 Accurate passesContext 274
77% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.95
10.30 FoulsContext 9.20
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union Berlin
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,976 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
  • L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts
FC Augsburg
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel495 km113 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Form 46 · 5 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · SV Elversberg3–41.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Bayern München2–20.5 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Werder Bremen2–31.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Bayer Leverkusen2–21.3 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt4–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union Berlin FC Augsburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 13Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 27 Feb3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 27 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km495 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,976 km113 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one3.83.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke
FC Augsburg Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs SV Elversberg (A) 3–4, 17 Oct
1F. Dahmen(G)
2C. Brackelmann 5C. Matsima 35A. Bah
16Hennes Behrens 32F. Rieder 4H. Massengo 27M. Wolf
21A. Ibrahimović 19Robin Fellhauer
9Rodrigo Ribeiro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union Berlin Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FC Augsburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Union Berlin · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
FC Augsburg · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentUnion BerlinFC Augsburg
SV Elversberg W 1–0 H L 3–4 A
Bayern München L 0–7 A D 2–2 H
FC Schalke 04 L 1–3 H W 3–0 H
Bayer Leverkusen L 0–4 A D 2–2 H
Eintracht Frankfurt D 3–3 H W 4–1 A
Points4 of 15 · 0.80 per game8 of 15 · 1.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Union Berlin wins4 draws4 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.20 Over 2.530% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 50%
  • 16 May 2026Union Berlin4–0FC Augsburg
  • 15 Jan 2026FC Augsburg1–1Union Berlin
  • 17 May 2025FC Augsburg1–2Union Berlin
  • 15 Jan 2025Union Berlin0–2FC Augsburg
  • 12 Apr 2024FC Augsburg2–0Union Berlin
  • 25 Nov 2023Union Berlin1–1FC Augsburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union BerlinFC AugsburgForecast
Scored per game 0.832.67
Conceded per game 2.832.00
Match goals 3.674.67
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 67%100%
Over 3.5 67%83%
Both teams scored 33%83%
Clean sheets 33%17%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games66
Union BerlinFC AugsburgForecast
Scored per game 1.502.30
Conceded per game 2.301.90
Match goals 3.804.20
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 80%90%
Over 3.5 80%80%
Both teams scored 50%80%
Clean sheets 30%10%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union BerlinFC AugsburgLeague
Corners
Corners won4.006.00
Corners conceded5.836.83
Match total9.8312.8310.72
Over 8.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 9.567% 4/683% 5/6
Over 10.533% 2/683% 5/6
Cards
Cards2.501.83
Opponent cards2.001.50
Match total4.503.333.51
Over 3.583% 5/633% 2/6
Over 4.533% 2/617% 1/6
Union BerlinFC AugsburgLeague
Corners
Corners won4.105.80
Corners conceded6.506.10
Match total10.6011.9010.72
Over 8.580% 8/1080% 8/10
Over 9.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 10.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards2.201.60
Opponent cards1.901.70
Match total4.103.303.51
Over 3.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
4 61-75
4 2 76-90
FC Augsburg6 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
1 3 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 31-45
5 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 5 76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
5 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 6 61-75
9 2 76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 23 · conceded 19
1 4 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
4 3 61-75
5 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München SC Freiburg Mar 219:30 Werder Bremen FSV Mainz 05 Mar 219:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach VfB Stuttgart Mar 219:30 Bayer Leverkusen 1899 Hoffenheim Mar 219:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Borussia Dortmund Mar 219:30 FC Schalke 04 1.FC Köln Mar 219:30 Hamburger SV SC Paderborn 07 Mar 219:30 Union Berlin FC Augsburg Mar 219:30 SV Elversberg RB Leipzig Mar 219:30