Bundesliga Gameweek 24 Tue, Mar 2 · 19:30 BayArena, Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
1899 Hoffenheim 14th · 6 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel239 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bayer Leverkusen—%
Draw—%
1899 Hoffenheim—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leverkusen)

Forecast from 15 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayer Leverkusen and 1899 Hoffenheim. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayer Leverkusen1899 Hoffenheim
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
79 Current StrengthIn forecast 49
87 AttackIn forecast 46
79 DefenceIn forecast 43
94 Form indexContext 15
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—
Defense risk—

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayer Leverkusen1899 Hoffenheim
2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33
2.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40
+0.48 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
100% Scored inContext 100%
33% Clean sheetsContext 0%
19.67 ShotsContext 17.83
6.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
31% On target shareContext 30%
13.83 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
71% Box shareContext 61%
14% ConversionContext 10%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.20
11.50 Shots allowedContext 13.50
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
2.67 BlocksContext 4.33
2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33
52% Save rateContext 52%
58% PossessionIn forecast 57%
539 PassesContext 499
470 Accurate passesContext 405
87% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.02 Team ratingContext 6.83
12.33 FoulsContext 13.33
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
2.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.16
100% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
18.50 ShotsContext 16.60
6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70
36% On target shareContext 28%
13.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
71% Box shareContext 62%
13% ConversionContext 8%
1.89 OffsidesContext 2.14
12.20 Shots allowedContext 12.90
4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
3.10 BlocksContext 4.10
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10
63% Save rateContext 50%
58% PossessionIn forecast 59%
537 PassesContext 515
470 Accurate passesContext 426
88% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.72
11.90 FoulsContext 14.00
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km686 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel239 km968 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
  • L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayer Leverkusen 1899 Hoffenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 27 Feb3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 27 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km239 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways686 km968 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one3.83.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández 24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby
14P. Schick
1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal
22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayer Leverkusen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
1899 Hoffenheim Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.67
Conceded
0.33
1899 Hoffenheim · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.67
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Bayer Leverkusen wins1 draws3 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game2.20 – 1.60 Over 2.590% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%
  • 17 Jan 20261899 Hoffenheim1–0Bayer Leverkusen
  • 23 Aug 2025Bayer Leverkusen1–21899 Hoffenheim
  • 2 Feb 2025Bayer Leverkusen3–11899 Hoffenheim
  • 14 Sep 20241899 Hoffenheim1–4Bayer Leverkusen
  • 30 Mar 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–11899 Hoffenheim
  • 4 Nov 20231899 Hoffenheim2–3Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Bayer Leverkusen1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 2.671.83
Conceded per game 1.502.33
Match goals 4.174.17
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 83%100%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 67%100%
Clean sheets 33%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games66
Bayer Leverkusen1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 2.401.40
Conceded per game 1.302.30
Match goals 3.703.70
Over 1.5 100%90%
Over 2.5 70%80%
Over 3.5 60%60%
Both teams scored 60%70%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 0%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayer Leverkusen1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won7.336.67
Corners conceded3.334.67
Match total10.6611.3410.72
Over 8.550% 3/6100% 6/6
Over 9.550% 3/683% 5/6
Over 10.550% 3/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards1.332.17
Opponent cards2.170.67
Match total3.502.843.51
Over 3.567% 4/633% 2/6
Over 4.533% 2/617% 1/6
Bayer Leverkusen1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won6.707.10
Corners conceded3.504.20
Match total10.2011.3010.72
Over 8.560% 6/10100% 10/10
Over 9.540% 4/1090% 9/10
Over 10.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.202.70
Opponent cards1.801.40
Match total3.004.103.51
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayer Leverkusen6 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3 3 0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 1 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim6 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 3 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 5 61-75
1 8 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München SC Freiburg Mar 219:30 Werder Bremen FSV Mainz 05 Mar 219:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach VfB Stuttgart Mar 219:30 Bayer Leverkusen 1899 Hoffenheim Mar 219:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Borussia Dortmund Mar 219:30 FC Schalke 04 1.FC Köln Mar 219:30 Hamburger SV SC Paderborn 07 Mar 219:30 Union Berlin FC Augsburg Mar 219:30 SV Elversberg RB Leipzig Mar 219:30