FC Schalke 04
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel64 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
FC Schalke 04—%
Draw—%
1.FC Köln—%
Weather (Gelsenkirchen)
Forecast from 15 Feb
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for FC Schalke 04 and 1.FC Köln. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
FC Schalke 04
1.FC Köln
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
33
AttackIn forecast
36
50
DefenceIn forecast
36
41
Form indexContext
26
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC Schalke 041.FC Köln
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
33%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.17
ShotsContext
16.33
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
34%
On target shareContext
33%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
72%
Box shareContext
71%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
15.17
Shots allowedContext
15.67
6.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.33
4.50
BlocksContext
3.83
5.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
84%
Save rateContext
71%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
349
PassesContext
417
243
Accurate passesContext
344
70%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.33
FoulsContext
11.17
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
0.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
50%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.00
ShotsContext
15.30
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
36%
On target shareContext
35%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
75%
Box shareContext
73%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.17
12.70
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.40
BlocksContext
3.80
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
79%
Save rateContext
60%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
380
PassesContext
414
278
Accurate passesContext
343
73%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.69
8.90
FoulsContext
9.80
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Schalke 04
DWDLL
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km377 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 41 · 5 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
1.FC Köln
LDLWL
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel64 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Schalke 04 |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 27 Feb | 3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 27 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 64 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 377 km | 90 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Schalke 04
Last XI · not confirmed
1L. Karius(G)
4H. Kuruçay
25N. Katić
5T. Becker
8R. Gosens
13Satoshi Tanaka
23S. El-Faouzi
17A. Gantenbein
24A. Aouchiche
19K. Karaman
10E. Džeko
1.FC Köln
Last XI · not confirmed
1M. Schwäbe(G)
3B. Sosa
24L. Lochoshvili
22J. Simpson-Pusey
2Joel Schmied
28S. Sebulonsen
37L. Maina
5T. Krauß
8Í. Jóhannesson
10S. El Mala
30M. Bülter
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Schalke 04
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
1.FC Köln
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
FC Schalke 04 · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
1.FC Köln · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 FC Schalke 04 wins1 draws1 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 29 Jan 2023FC Schalke 040–01.FC Köln
- 7 Aug 20221.FC Köln3–1FC Schalke 04
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Schalke 04 | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 1.83 | 3.17 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 83% | |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 1.83 | 3.60 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 90% | |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 10% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Schalke 04 | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 12.33 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 3.50 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| FC Schalke 04 | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 11.22 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
FC Schalke 046 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
4
76-90
1.FC Köln6 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
6
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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