Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Union Berlin were slight favourites.
Union Berlin were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 31). Union Berlin had 7.2 days of rest, Hamburger SV 8.2 and had to travel 255 km.
Away travel255 kmRest days7.2 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Union Berlin51%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV24%
Union Berlin51%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV24%
Union Berlin50%
Draw26%
Hamburger SV24%
Union Berlin43%
Draw27%
Hamburger SV30%
Union Berlin51%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV23%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
RefereeDeniz Aytekin
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 63
Team strength
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
42
AttackIn forecast
37
41
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinHamburger SV
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
2.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
2.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
75%
Scored inContext
25%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.25
ShotsContext
10.75
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
35%
On target shareContext
35%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
74%
Box shareContext
46%
16%
ConversionContext
5%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.50
Shots allowedContext
18.75
7.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.50
4.33
BlocksContext
4.50
4.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.25
63%
Save rateContext
70%
31%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
266
PassesContext
372
186
Accurate passesContext
310
70%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.75
FoulsContext
12.75
12.25
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
+0.60
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
70%
Scored inContext
33%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.40
ShotsContext
10.50
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
36%
On target shareContext
32%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
76%
Box shareContext
41%
16%
ConversionContext
5%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.70
Shots allowedContext
16.33
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.67
3.22
BlocksContext
4.20
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
60%
Save rateContext
75%
33%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
295
PassesContext
406
215
Accurate passesContext
332
73%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.70
FoulsContext
11.83
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.83
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km847 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Hamburger SV
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel255 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 8.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 255 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 847 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
19J. Haberer
8R. Khedira
28C. Trimmel
10Ilyas Ansah
7O. Burke
23A. Ilić
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
8Daniel Elfadli
44L. Vušković
17W. Omari
28M. Muheim
21N. Remberg
20Fábio Vieira
16G. Gocholeishvili
7Jean-Luc Dompe
11R. Königsdörffer
14Rayan Philippe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Hamburger SV-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Hamburger SV · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.75 | 2.50 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Union Berlin | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.75 | 2.50 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.00 | 10.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.75 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Union Berlin | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 5.83 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 9.16 | 10.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.33 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 2/6 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Deniz Aytekin 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 4.30
Red cards0.21league 0.30
Cards 5+35%league 45%
Fouls22.8league 22.7
Penalties0.29league 0.50
Home wins37%league 39%
Union Berlin9 with this referee
Record2-3-4
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.4
Pens for · against2 · 5
Reds1
- D27 Apr 25A · VfL Bochum1–12
- L11 May 24A · 1.FC Köln2–32
- D24 Feb 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–22
- W20 Dec 23H · 1.FC Köln2–00
- L23 Sep 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim0–21
Hamburger SV1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 May 22H · Hertha BSC0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin4 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
5
76-90
Hamburger SV4 games · scored 2 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 17 · conceded 22
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
7
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Hamburger SV6 games · scored 3 · conceded 10
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
