Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union Berlin50.8%fair odds 1.97
Draw25.4%fair odds 3.94
Hamburger SV23.8%fair odds 4.20
Expected goals1.68 – 1.08total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Hamburger SV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union Berlin ↓ · Hamburger SV → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union Berlin goals, columns Hamburger SV goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.28
- 1–010.0%10.02
- 2–19.7%10.36
- 2–08.9%11.22
- 0–06.9%14.50
- 1–26.2%16.12
- 0–16.2%16.13
- 3–15.4%18.46
- 2–25.2%19.14
- 3–05.0%19.98
Winning margin
12.0%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 8.31
15.7%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 6.36
23.1%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 4.34
25.4%
Draw
fair 3.94
14.6%
Hamburger SV by 1
fair 6.85
6.5%
Hamburger SV by 2
fair 15.38
2.7%
Hamburger SV by 3+
fair 37.08
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Union Berlin goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Hamburger SV goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin win | 50.8% | 51.3% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 25.4% | 25.3% | +0.1 pp |
| Hamburger SV win | 23.8% | 23.4% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 52.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.5% | 54.4% | +0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 1.68 | 1.70 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Hamburger SV | 1.08 | 1.07 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union Berlin win50.8%1.97
- Draw25.4%3.94
- Hamburger SV win23.8%4.20
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw76.2%1.31
- Double chance Union Berlin or Hamburger SV74.6%1.34
- Double chance Hamburger SV or draw49.2%2.03
- Draw no bet Union Berlin68.1%1.47
- Draw no bet Hamburger SV31.9%3.13
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.576.9%1.30
- Over 2.552.2%1.91
- Over 3.530.1%3.33
- Over 4.514.7%6.80
- Under 1.523.1%4.33
- Under 2.547.8%2.09
- Under 3.569.9%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes54.5%1.84
- No45.5%2.20
- Yes and over 2.542.4%2.36
- Union Berlin win and yes23.8%4.19
- Draw and yes18.5%5.41
- Hamburger SV win and yes12.1%8.24
Team goals
- Union Berlin over 0.581.4%1.23
- Union Berlin over 1.550.2%1.99
- Union Berlin over 2.523.9%4.19
- Hamburger SV over 0.566.1%1.51
- Hamburger SV over 1.529.5%3.39
- Hamburger SV over 2.59.6%10.41
- Union Berlin clean sheet33.9%2.95
- Hamburger SV clean sheet18.6%5.39
- Union Berlin win to nil27.0%3.71
- Hamburger SV win to nil11.7%8.57
Handicap
- Union Berlin −1.527.8%3.60
- Union Berlin −2.512.0%8.31
- Hamburger SV +1.572.2%1.38
- Hamburger SV +2.588.0%1.14
- Hamburger SV −1.59.2%10.87
- Union Berlin +1.590.8%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored44
Favourite won52.3%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.569
Over 2.5 called right68.2%
BTTS called right63.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.0% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 45.3% | 41.7% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 54.3% | 44.4% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 66.1% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 26 of 44 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5194 | 0.5193 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.3% | 44.6% |
| Favourite won | 57.7% | 65.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 26 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 44 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.