Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union Berlin30.8%fair odds 3.25
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.93
VfB Stuttgart43.8%fair odds 2.28
Expected goals1.32 – 1.62total 2.94
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union Berlin ↓ · VfB Stuttgart → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union Berlin goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.41
- 1–29.1%10.93
- 0–17.9%12.62
- 2–17.5%13.37
- 0–26.9%14.49
- 1–06.4%15.69
- 2–26.1%16.51
- 0–05.9%17.06
- 1–34.9%20.25
- 2–04.6%21.65
Winning margin
4.7%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 21.09
8.9%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 11.18
17.1%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 5.86
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.93
21.0%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.76
13.4%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 7.48
9.4%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 10.62
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
18%5+
Union Berlin goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
VfB Stuttgart goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin win | 30.8% | 31.7% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 26.6% | -1.1 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 43.8% | 41.7% | +2.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 52.2% | +4.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.5% | 56.4% | +3.1 pp |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 1.32 | 1.27 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 1.62 | 1.49 | +0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union Berlin win30.8%3.25
- Draw25.5%3.93
- VfB Stuttgart win43.8%2.28
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw56.2%1.78
- Double chance Union Berlin or VfB Stuttgart74.5%1.34
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw69.2%1.44
- Draw no bet Union Berlin41.3%2.42
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart58.7%1.70
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.8%1.25
- Over 2.556.4%1.77
- Over 3.534.0%2.94
- Over 4.517.6%5.70
- Under 1.520.2%4.96
- Under 2.543.6%2.30
- Under 3.566.0%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes59.5%1.68
- No40.5%2.47
- Yes and over 2.547.6%2.10
- Union Berlin win and yes16.8%5.95
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes23.1%4.34
Team goals
- Union Berlin over 0.573.4%1.36
- Union Berlin over 1.538.2%2.62
- Union Berlin over 2.514.9%6.73
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.580.2%1.25
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.548.1%2.08
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.522.2%4.51
- Union Berlin clean sheet19.8%5.05
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet26.6%3.76
- Union Berlin win to nil13.9%7.18
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil20.7%4.83
Handicap
- Union Berlin −1.513.7%7.31
- Union Berlin −2.54.7%21.09
- VfB Stuttgart +1.586.3%1.16
- VfB Stuttgart +2.595.3%1.05
- VfB Stuttgart −1.522.8%4.39
- Union Berlin +1.577.2%1.30
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored1
Favourite won100.0%
Avg chance given to result70.0%
1X2 Brier0.136
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right0.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70–80% | 1 | 70.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 1 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
- ✓Bayern München 6–0 RB Leipzig70·18·12
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 1 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.