Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 42). VfB Stuttgart usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Union Berlin had ? days of rest, VfB Stuttgart ? and had to travel 512 km.
Away travel512 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Union Berlin31%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart44%
Union Berlin32%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart41%
Union Berlin31%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart43%
Union Berlin24%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart52%
Union Berlin32%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart42%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 49
Team strength
Union Berlin
VfB Stuttgart
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
42
AttackIn forecast
70
41
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinVfB Stuttgart
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.60
ShotsContext
13.80
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
37%
On target shareContext
36%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
11.25
71%
Box shareContext
73%
16%
ConversionContext
16%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.56
13.20
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.80
BlocksContext
3.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
63%
Save rateContext
57%
33%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
291
PassesContext
536
209
Accurate passesContext
464
72%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.07
10.10
FoulsContext
10.40
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel512 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 512 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
24R. Skov
15T. Rothe
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
28C. Trimmel
19J. Haberer
8R. Khedira
13A. Schäfer
23A. Ilić
10Ilyas Ansah
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
14L. Jaquez
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling
26D. Undav
11N. Woltemade
9E. Demirović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
No home games yet this season.
VfB Stuttgart · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Union Berlin wins3 draws3 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 19 Apr 2025Union Berlin4–4VfB Stuttgart
- 6 Dec 2024VfB Stuttgart3–2Union Berlin
- 8 Mar 2024VfB Stuttgart2–0Union Berlin
- 21 Oct 2023Union Berlin0–3VfB Stuttgart
- 1 Apr 2023Union Berlin3–0VfB Stuttgart
- 9 Oct 2022VfB Stuttgart0–1Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 59% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Union Berlin | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 59% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Union Berlin | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.30 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 5.00
Red cards0.22league 0.00
Cards 5+35%league 100%
Fouls22.8league 26.0
Penalties0.31league 0.00
Home wins49%league 100%
Union Berlin5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds3
- L11 Jan 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim0–22
- W17 Feb 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–04
- W21 Jan 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–12
- W27 Aug 22A · FC Schalke 046–10
- D12 Mar 22H · VfB Stuttgart1–13
VfB Stuttgart5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L1 Feb 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–22
- W26 Oct 24H · Holstein Kiel2–13
- D11 Mar 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–11
- D13 Aug 22A · Werder Bremen2–22
- D12 Mar 22A · Union Berlin1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union BerlinVfB StuttgartUnion Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
1
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
5
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
