Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union Berlin
11th · 28 pts · 24 played
LDLWL
1–4Full time
Werder Bremen
16th · 22 pts · 24 played
DLLLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Werder Bremen. Union Berlin had 8.1 days of rest, Werder Bremen 8.1 and had to travel 315 km.
Away travel315 kmRest days8.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Union Berlin40%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen33%
Union Berlin44%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen29%
Union Berlin39%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen33%
Union Berlin33%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen40%
Union Berlin40%
Draw28%
Werder Bremen32%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTimo Gerach
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 30
Team strength
Union BerlinWerder Bremen
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
42
AttackIn forecast
56
41
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinWerder Bremen
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.04
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
71%
Scored inContext
58%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
12.08
ShotsContext
13.17
3.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
29%
On target shareContext
31%
9.35
Shots in the boxContext
8.43
75%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
1.84
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.00
Shots allowedContext
13.25
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.48
3.60
BlocksContext
3.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
67%
Save rateContext
63%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
317
PassesContext
467
228
Accurate passesContext
384
72%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.58
FoulsContext
9.96
9.96
Fouls sufferedContext
9.54
2.42
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
80%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
14.50
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
26%
On target shareContext
25%
10.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
79%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
5%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.20
Shots allowedContext
9.90
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.29
BlocksContext
2.75
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
65%
Save rateContext
59%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
339
PassesContext
492
247
Accurate passesContext
405
73%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.80
FoulsContext
10.30
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,002 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel315 km190 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 315 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,002 km | 190 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
34S. Nsoki
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
13A. Schäfer
19J. Haberer
10Ilyas Ansah
23A. Ilić
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
2O. Deman
32M. Friedl
4N. Stark
3Y. Sugawara
18Cameron Puertas
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
20R. Schmid
9K. Topp
17M. Grüll
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Werder Bremen-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.42points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-3
- Scored
- 1.42
- Conceded
- 1.42
Werder Bremen · Away
0.50points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-8
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H | L 0–2 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 0–4 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 H | L 0–3 HL 0–4 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Points | 28 of 69 · 1.22 per game | 19 of 69 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Union Berlin wins1 draws3 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game1.14 – 1.57
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 24 Oct 2025Werder Bremen1–0Union Berlin
- 3 May 2025Union Berlin2–2Werder Bremen
- 21 Dec 2024Werder Bremen4–1Union Berlin
- 16 Mar 2024Union Berlin2–1Werder Bremen
- 28 Oct 2023Werder Bremen2–0Union Berlin
- 27 May 2023Union Berlin1–0Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 2.88 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 54% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 42% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 42% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Union Berlin | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 5.28 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.28 | |
| Match total | 9.08 | 10.56 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 16/23 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 10/23 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 5/23 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.54 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.54 | |
| Match total | 4.71 | 3.87 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 16/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 12/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Union Berlin | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 8.90 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.90 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Timo Gerach Germany · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.80league 3.72
Red cards0.30league 0.17
Cards 5+47%league 38%
Fouls20.6league 20.6
Penalties0.50league 0.37
Home wins43%league 46%
Union Berlin2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Oct 24A · Holstein Kiel2–01
- L12 Nov 23A · Bayer Leverkusen0–41
Werder Bremen3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 3
- L20 Sep 25H · SC Freiburg0–35
- L15 Mar 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–41
- D4 May 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin24 games · scored 29 · conceded 38
2
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
12
31-45
4
8
46-60
4
2
61-75
10
12
76-90
Werder Bremen24 games · scored 25 · conceded 44
2
4
0-15
3
6
16-30
2
8
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
11
61-75
11
10
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
