Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union Berlin
11th · 28 pts · 24 played
LDLWL
1–4Full time
Werder Bremen
16th · 22 pts · 24 played
DLLLW
Union Berlin40.3%fair odds 2.48
Draw26.7%fair odds 3.74
Werder Bremen33.0%fair odds 3.03
Expected goals1.45 – 1.30total 2.75
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Werder Bremen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union Berlin ↓ · Werder Bremen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union Berlin goals, columns Werder Bremen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.88
- 2–18.8%11.42
- 1–08.7%11.55
- 1–27.8%12.81
- 0–17.6%13.08
- 0–07.0%14.22
- 2–06.8%14.79
- 2–25.7%17.62
- 0–25.4%18.64
- 3–14.2%23.55
Winning margin
7.5%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 13.39
12.1%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 8.23
20.6%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 4.84
26.7%
Draw
fair 3.74
18.3%
Werder Bremen by 1
fair 5.46
9.6%
Werder Bremen by 2
fair 10.38
5.0%
Werder Bremen by 3+
fair 19.80
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Union Berlin goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Werder Bremen goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin win | 40.3% | 40.5% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.7% | 27.5% | -0.8 pp |
| Werder Bremen win | 33.0% | 32.0% | +1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 48.5% | +3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.3% | 53.6% | +2.7 pp |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 1.45 | 1.40 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Werder Bremen | 1.30 | 1.22 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union Berlin win40.3%2.48
- Draw26.7%3.74
- Werder Bremen win33.0%3.03
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw67.0%1.49
- Double chance Union Berlin or Werder Bremen73.3%1.36
- Double chance Werder Bremen or draw59.7%1.67
- Draw no bet Union Berlin54.9%1.82
- Draw no bet Werder Bremen45.1%2.22
Goals
- Over 0.593.0%1.08
- Over 1.576.7%1.30
- Over 2.551.8%1.93
- Over 3.529.7%3.37
- Over 4.514.5%6.92
- Under 1.523.3%4.28
- Under 2.548.2%2.08
- Under 3.570.3%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes56.3%1.78
- No43.7%2.29
- Yes and over 2.543.6%2.29
- Union Berlin win and yes19.9%5.02
- Draw and yes19.7%5.08
- Werder Bremen win and yes16.7%5.99
Team goals
- Union Berlin over 0.576.6%1.30
- Union Berlin over 1.542.7%2.34
- Union Berlin over 2.518.0%5.56
- Werder Bremen over 0.572.6%1.38
- Werder Bremen over 1.537.2%2.69
- Werder Bremen over 2.514.2%7.05
- Union Berlin clean sheet27.4%3.65
- Werder Bremen clean sheet23.4%4.28
- Union Berlin win to nil20.3%4.92
- Werder Bremen win to nil16.3%6.13
Handicap
- Union Berlin −1.519.6%5.10
- Union Berlin −2.57.5%13.39
- Werder Bremen +1.580.4%1.24
- Werder Bremen +2.592.5%1.08
- Werder Bremen −1.514.7%6.81
- Union Berlin +1.585.3%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored224
Favourite won57.1%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.555
Over 2.5 called right62.5%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 31 | 38.3% | 38.7% |
| 40–50% | 67 | 45.1% | 44.8% |
| 50–60% | 63 | 55.3% | 61.9% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 64.5% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 18 | 74.2% | 77.8% |
| 80%+ | 10 | 85.9% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 187 of 224 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5528 | 0.5475 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.6% | 43.2% |
| Favourite won | 57.8% | 58.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 187 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 224 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.