VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
VfB Stuttgart
5th · 58 pts · 32 played
LWLDD
3–1Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
4th · 58 pts · 32 played
WWLWW
VfB Stuttgart34.1%fair odds 2.94
Draw21.9%fair odds 4.56
Bayer Leverkusen44.0%fair odds 2.27
Expected goals1.78 – 2.03total 3.82
Likeliest score1–18.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayer Leverkusen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| VfB Stuttgart ↓ · Bayer Leverkusen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfB Stuttgart goals, columns Bayer Leverkusen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–18.4%11.91
- 1–28.1%12.32
- 2–27.2%13.83
- 2–17.1%14.07
- 1–35.5%18.17
- 2–34.9%20.39
- 0–24.6%21.96
- 3–24.3%23.28
- 3–14.2%23.69
- 0–14.1%24.67
Winning margin
7.4%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 13.46
10.2%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 9.83
16.5%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 6.07
21.9%
Draw
fair 4.56
18.9%
Bayer Leverkusen by 1
fair 5.30
13.3%
Bayer Leverkusen by 2
fair 7.54
11.9%
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+
fair 8.41
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
8%1
16%2
20%3
19%4
34%5+
VfB Stuttgart goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Bayer Leverkusen goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 34.1% | 33.5% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 21.9% | 23.6% | -1.7 pp |
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 44.0% | 42.9% | +1.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 73.4% | 65.5% | +7.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 72.7% | 66.6% | +6.1 pp |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 1.78 | 1.57 | +0.21 |
| Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen | 2.03 | 1.80 | +0.24 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- VfB Stuttgart win34.1%2.94
- Draw21.9%4.56
- Bayer Leverkusen win44.0%2.27
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw56.0%1.79
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or Bayer Leverkusen78.1%1.28
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw65.9%1.52
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart43.6%2.29
- Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen56.4%1.77
Goals
- Over 0.597.4%1.03
- Over 1.589.8%1.11
- Over 2.573.4%1.36
- Over 3.553.0%1.89
- Over 4.533.5%2.98
- Under 1.510.2%9.83
- Under 2.526.6%3.76
- Under 3.547.0%2.13
Both teams to score
- Yes72.7%1.38
- No27.3%3.67
- Yes and over 2.564.3%1.55
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes23.6%4.23
- Draw and yes19.3%5.18
- Bayer Leverkusen win and yes29.8%3.36
Team goals
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.583.2%1.20
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.553.2%1.88
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.526.5%3.78
- Bayer Leverkusen over 0.586.9%1.15
- Bayer Leverkusen over 1.560.3%1.66
- Bayer Leverkusen over 2.533.3%3.01
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet13.1%7.65
- Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet16.8%5.94
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil10.4%9.57
- Bayer Leverkusen win to nil14.2%7.04
Handicap
- VfB Stuttgart −1.517.6%5.68
- VfB Stuttgart −2.57.4%13.46
- Bayer Leverkusen +1.582.4%1.21
- Bayer Leverkusen +2.592.6%1.08
- Bayer Leverkusen −1.525.1%3.98
- VfB Stuttgart +1.574.9%1.34
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored289
Favourite won55.7%
Avg chance given to result43.0%
1X2 Brier0.568
Over 2.5 called right61.9%
BTTS called right59.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 38.3% | 34.2% |
| 40–50% | 91 | 45.0% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 75 | 55.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 45 | 64.7% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 74.1% | 77.8% |
| 80%+ | 13 | 87.2% | 76.9% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 240 of 289 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5628 | 0.5582 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.3% | 42.7% |
| Favourite won | 56.7% | 55.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 289 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.