VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfB Stuttgart
5th · 58 pts · 32 played
LWLDD
3–1Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
4th · 58 pts · 32 played
WWLWW
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayer Leverkusen. VfB Stuttgart had 7 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 6.9 and had to travel 295 km.
Away travel295 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
VfB Stuttgart34%
Draw22%
Bayer Leverkusen44%
VfB Stuttgart36%
Draw27%
Bayer Leverkusen37%
VfB Stuttgart35%
Draw22%
Bayer Leverkusen43%
VfB Stuttgart26%
Draw21%
Bayer Leverkusen53%
VfB Stuttgart33%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen43%
Over 2.5 73%
Both score 73%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Schröder
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 70
Team strength
VfB StuttgartBayer Leverkusen
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
79
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
79
70
AttackIn forecast
87
58
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartBayer Leverkusen
2.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.06
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.34
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
91%
Scored inContext
88%
34%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
14.75
ShotsContext
14.19
5.66
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.88
38%
On target shareContext
34%
9.63
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
65%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.42
OffsidesContext
1.48
12.41
Shots allowedContext
11.94
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.77
3.29
BlocksContext
3.03
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
70%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
515
PassesContext
595
434
Accurate passesContext
528
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.01
9.41
FoulsContext
8.50
11.94
Fouls sufferedContext
10.31
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.03
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
2.01
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.50
ShotsContext
16.10
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
37%
On target shareContext
34%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
61%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.43
13.40
Shots allowedContext
13.70
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.00
BlocksContext
3.10
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
63%
Save rateContext
69%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
507
PassesContext
528
423
Accurate passesContext
466
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.04
10.00
FoulsContext
7.60
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km113 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel295 km22 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 May | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 295 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 113 km | 22 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
3R. Hendriks
18J. Leweling
6A. Stiller
30Chema Andrés
10C. Führich
26D. Undav
28N. Nartey
9E. Demirović
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
25E. Palacios
24Aleix García
42Montrell Amare Culbreath
30I. Maza
14P. Schick
35Christian Kofane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
2.25points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-3-2
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 0.94
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
1.75points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-4
- Scored
- 1.81
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 3–3 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–4 AL 0–5 H | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–0 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 HD 3–3 A | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 5–2 AW 3–2 H | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 4–0 HW 3–0 A | W 6–3 HW 3–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | D 3–3 AW 6–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | D 3–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 55 of 93 · 1.77 per game | 58 of 93 · 1.87 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 VfB Stuttgart wins4 draws4 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game1.56 – 2.00
Over 2.556%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 10 Jan 2026Bayer Leverkusen1–4VfB Stuttgart
- 16 Mar 2025VfB Stuttgart3–4Bayer Leverkusen
- 1 Nov 2024Bayer Leverkusen0–0VfB Stuttgart
- 27 Apr 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–2VfB Stuttgart
- 10 Dec 2023VfB Stuttgart1–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 14 May 2023VfB Stuttgart1–1Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.06 | 2.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.34 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.41 | 3.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 72% | 59% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 63% | 73% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 13% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| VfB Stuttgart | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 73% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.42 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.16 | 3.97 | |
| Match total | 9.58 | 9.26 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 17/31 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 16/31 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 10/31 | 32% 10/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.81 | 2.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.66 | 2.72 | |
| Match total | 3.47 | 4.81 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 14/32 | 59% 19/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 11/32 | 44% 14/32 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.34 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.80 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Schröder Germany · 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.99league 3.71
Red cards0.19league 0.17
Cards 5+43%league 38%
Fouls23.5league 20.2
Penalties0.34league 0.35
Home wins47%league 43%
VfB Stuttgart6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L4 Apr 26H · Borussia Dortmund0–22
- L21 Apr 24A · Werder Bremen1–23
- W8 Mar 24H · Union Berlin2–01
- D27 May 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–10
- W14 May 22H · 1.FC Köln2–11
Bayer Leverkusen4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W31 Jan 26A · Eintracht Frankfurt3–11
- W23 Aug 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–20
- L19 Feb 23H · FSV Mainz 052–36
- W6 Nov 22H · Union Berlin5–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart32 games · scored 66 · conceded 46
4
5
0-15
12
6
16-30
13
11
31-45
8
5
46-60
7
3
61-75
22
16
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen32 games · scored 66 · conceded 43
10
5
0-15
11
6
16-30
18
13
31-45
8
5
46-60
8
5
61-75
11
9
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
4
5
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
7
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
