UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 6 · 20:00 MHPArena, Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart 30th · 3 pts · 3 played
2–0Full time
Feyenoord 27th · 3 pts · 3 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. VfB Stuttgart had 5.2 days of rest, Feyenoord 5 and had to travel 483 km.

Away travel483 kmRest days5.2 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
VfB Stuttgart44%
Draw26%
Feyenoord31%
Expected goals 1.61 – 1.31
VfB Stuttgart42%
Draw27%
Feyenoord31%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22
VfB Stuttgart43%
Draw26%
Feyenoord31%
Expected goals 1.57 – 1.28
VfB Stuttgart36%
Draw26%
Feyenoord38%
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.46
VfB Stuttgart43%
Draw27%
Feyenoord31%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.24
Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)

No weather data yet

Referee · RomaniaHoratiu Fesnic
  • Cards per match 5.0
  • Penalties per match 0.33
  • Matches 3

Team strength

VfB StuttgartFeyenoord
61 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 59
70 AttackIn forecast 76
58 DefenceIn forecast 61
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—
Defense risk—

Feyenoord

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfB StuttgartFeyenoord
0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33
1.64 xGVia Att/Def 1.07
1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.78
-0.97 Goals minus xGContext -0.07
33% Scored inContext 33%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
20.00 ShotsContext 13.67
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
25% On target shareContext 39%
13.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.67
70% Box shareContext 52%
3% ConversionContext 7%
1.50 OffsidesContext 3.00
12.67 Shots allowedContext 8.33
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33
3.33 BlocksContext 3.00
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
73% Save rateContext 60%
63% PossessionIn forecast 49%
525 PassesContext 419
453 Accurate passesContext 349
86% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.76
11.67 FoulsContext 16.00
14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.67
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.88
1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.66
-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.52
80% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.30 ShotsContext 17.60
5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60
33% On target shareContext 38%
10.20 Shots in the boxContext 11.20
62% Box shareContext 64%
9% ConversionContext 14%
2.44 OffsidesContext 2.71
11.50 Shots allowedContext 8.20
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.63
3.20 BlocksContext 2.38
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43
77% Save rateContext 61%
59% PossessionIn forecast 52%
522 PassesContext 428
446 Accurate passesContext 359
85% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.91 Team ratingContext 6.99
11.90 FoulsContext 11.00
11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfB Stuttgart
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km729 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Feyenoord
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel483 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
VfB Stuttgart Feyenoord
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Nov5Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km483 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways729 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one2.93

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch
4J. Vagnoman 30Chema Andrés 6A. Stiller 22L. Assignon
11B. El Khannouss 8Tiago Tomás
26D. Undav
+11 more reported missing outside this XI
Feyenoord Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
5G. Smal 4T. Watanabe 21A. Ahmedhodžić 26G. Read
8Q. Timber 40L. Valente
11Gonçalo Borges 10C. Larin 23A. Hadj Moussa
9A. Ueda
+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
VfB Stuttgart Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Feyenoord Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • VfB Stuttgart+0.4 pp
  • Draw-0.3 pp
  • Feyenoord-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

VfB Stuttgart · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
Feyenoord · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

VfB StuttgartFeyenoordForecast
Scored per game 0.671.00
Conceded per game 1.331.33
Match goals 2.002.33 2.91
Over 1.5 67%67%
Over 2.5 33%33% 56%
Over 3.5 0%33%
Both teams scored 33%33% 59%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 67%67%
Games33
VfB StuttgartFeyenoordForecast
Scored per game 1.402.40
Conceded per game 1.201.30
Match goals 2.603.70 2.91
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 60%60% 56%
Over 3.5 20%60%
Both teams scored 50%50% 59%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

VfB StuttgartFeyenoordLeague
Corners
Corners won8.334.33
Corners conceded2.333.33
Match total10.667.669.02
Over 8.5100% 3/367% 2/3
Over 9.5100% 3/30% 0/3
Over 10.567% 2/30% 0/3
Cards
Cards1.672.00
Opponent cards3.673.33
Match total5.345.334.21
Over 3.567% 2/367% 2/3
Over 4.533% 1/367% 2/3
VfB StuttgartFeyenoordLeague
Corners
Corners won6.106.67
Corners conceded3.803.11
Match total9.909.789.02
Over 8.580% 8/1067% 6/9
Over 9.570% 7/1044% 4/9
Over 10.540% 4/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.501.50
Opponent cards2.101.90
Match total3.603.404.21
Over 3.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Horatiu Fesnic Romania · 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.67league 4.02
Red cards0.33league 0.16
Cards 5+67%league 40%
Fouls34.5league 24.9
Penalties0.33league 0.43
Home wins67%league 48%
VfB Stuttgart

No previous matches with this referee.

Feyenoord

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

VfB Stuttgart3 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
2 76-90
Feyenoord3 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 2 76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2 0-15
2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
3 61-75
3 6 76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1 0-15
4 3 16-30
5 31-45
7 5 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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