VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfL Wolfsburg
11th · 18 pts · 17 played
WWLLW
1–1Full time
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 12 pts · 17 played
WLLDL
Our take
VfL Wolfsburg were slight favourites.
VfL Wolfsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 27). VfL Wolfsburg had 2.9 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 3.8 and had to travel 419 km.
Away travel419 kmRest days2.9 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
VfL Wolfsburg57%
Draw23%
1. FC Heidenheim20%
VfL Wolfsburg55%
Draw24%
1. FC Heidenheim21%
VfL Wolfsburg56%
Draw24%
1. FC Heidenheim21%
VfL Wolfsburg49%
Draw25%
1. FC Heidenheim26%
VfL Wolfsburg56%
Draw24%
1. FC Heidenheim20%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 45
Team strength
VfL Wolfsburg1. FC Heidenheim
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
50
AttackIn forecast
48
42
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL Wolfsburg1. FC Heidenheim
1.53
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.94
2.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.24
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
82%
Scored inContext
65%
6%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.41
ShotsContext
11.24
4.24
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
37%
On target shareContext
31%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
7.63
62%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.06
Shots allowedContext
15.53
5.24
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.65
3.69
BlocksContext
3.82
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.35
63%
Save rateContext
59%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
408
PassesContext
370
329
Accurate passesContext
290
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.41
FoulsContext
10.18
9.59
Fouls sufferedContext
10.24
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
1.65
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
100%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
10.90
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
47%
On target shareContext
28%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
63%
Box shareContext
66%
18%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
14.60
Shots allowedContext
15.80
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.78
BlocksContext
4.50
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
52%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
412
PassesContext
386
330
Accurate passesContext
304
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.69
10.40
FoulsContext
10.10
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km960 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel419 km397 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
1. FC Heidenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Jan | 3.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 419 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 960 km | 397 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
25A. Zehnter
4K. Koulierakis
15M. Jenz
41Jan Bürger
27M. Arnold
31Y. Gerhardt
39P. Wimmer
10L. Majer
24C. Eriksen
9M. Amoura
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
19J. Föhrenbach
5B. Gimber
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
30N. Dorsch
3J. Schöppner
17M. Honsak
21A. Beck
22A. Ibrahimović
18M. Pieringer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- 1. FC Heidenheim-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
0.89points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-5
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.22
1. FC Heidenheim · Away
0.38points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-7
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | 1. FC Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–8 A | L 0–4 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 3–4 H | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | L 0–6 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 3–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 15 of 48 · 0.94 per game | 12 of 48 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 VfL Wolfsburg wins1 draws1 1. FC Heidenheim wins
Goals per game1.80 – 0.80
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 23 Aug 20251. FC Heidenheim1–3VfL Wolfsburg
- 29 Mar 2025VfL Wolfsburg0–11. FC Heidenheim
- 10 Nov 20241. FC Heidenheim1–3VfL Wolfsburg
- 20 Jan 20241. FC Heidenheim1–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 19 Aug 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–01. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.53 | 0.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.18 | 2.24 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 3.18 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 94% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 76% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 76% | 65% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 6% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 35% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 90% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 4.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.13 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 10.76 | 9.25 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 11/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 9/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 7/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.59 | 2.12 | |
| Match total | 3.41 | 3.83 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 7/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 6/17 | 41% 7/17 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.11 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.89 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.11 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.80 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.18league 3.78
Red cards0.16league 0.20
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls23.5league 21.1
Penalties0.24league 0.32
Home wins47%league 46%
VfL Wolfsburg3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W15 Feb 25A · VfB Stuttgart2–13
- L17 Dec 21A · Bayern München0–40
- L23 Oct 21H · SC Freiburg0–23
1. FC Heidenheim6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W27 Sep 25H · FC Augsburg2–11
- L17 May 25H · Werder Bremen1–42
- W25 Apr 25A · VfB Stuttgart1–04
- W18 May 24H · 1.FC Köln4–11
- L20 Apr 24H · RB Leipzig1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg17 games · scored 26 · conceded 37
7
6
0-15
5
5
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
6
46-60
5
6
61-75
3
10
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim17 games · scored 16 · conceded 38
1
2
0-15
2
7
16-30
1
10
31-45
4
9
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
6
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 24
6
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
1
6
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 10 · conceded 25
1
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
1
7
31-45
2
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
