Bundesliga Gameweek 18 Sat, Jan 17 · 14:30 Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg 11th · 18 pts · 17 played
1–1Full time
1. FC Heidenheim 18th · 12 pts · 17 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
VfL Wolfsburg56.7%fair odds 1.76
Draw23.3%fair odds 4.29
1. FC Heidenheim20.0%fair odds 4.99
Expected goals1.90 – 1.05total 2.95
Likeliest score1–111.0%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

VfL Wolfsburg

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

1. FC Heidenheim

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

VfL Wolfsburg ↓ · 1. FC Heidenheim →0123456+
05.84.92.91.00.30.10.0
19.411.05.51.90.50.10.0
29.49.95.21.80.50.10.0
36.06.33.31.20.30.10.0
42.83.01.60.50.10.00.0
51.11.10.60.20.10.00.0
6+0.50.50.30.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfL Wolfsburg goals, columns 1. FC Heidenheim goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.0%9.10
  • 2–19.9%10.08
  • 2–09.4%10.59
  • 1–09.4%10.66
  • 3–16.3%15.90
  • 3–06.0%16.71
  • 0–05.8%17.31
  • 1–25.5%18.25
  • 2–25.2%19.19
  • 0–14.9%20.26

Winning margin

15.9% VfL Wolfsburg by 3+ fair 6.27
17.5% VfL Wolfsburg by 2 fair 5.70
23.2% VfL Wolfsburg by 1 fair 4.31
23.3% Draw fair 4.29
12.6% 1. FC Heidenheim by 1 fair 7.95
5.3% 1. FC Heidenheim by 2 fair 18.69
2.1% 1. FC Heidenheim by 3+ fair 47.44

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+

VfL Wolfsburg goals

15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+

1. FC Heidenheim goals

35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
VfL Wolfsburg win 56.7% 55.8% +0.9 pp
Draw 23.3% 24.1% -0.8 pp
1. FC Heidenheim win 20.0% 20.1% -0.1 pp
Over 2.5 56.6% 53.4% +3.2 pp
Both teams score 55.9% 53.5% +2.3 pp
Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg 1.90 1.81 +0.09
Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim 1.05 1.00 +0.05

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • VfL Wolfsburg win56.7%1.76
  • Draw23.3%4.29
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win20.0%4.99
  • Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw80.0%1.25
  • Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or 1. FC Heidenheim76.7%1.30
  • Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw43.3%2.31
  • Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg73.9%1.35
  • Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim26.1%3.83

Goals

  • Over 0.594.2%1.06
  • Over 1.579.9%1.25
  • Over 2.556.6%1.77
  • Over 3.534.2%2.92
  • Over 4.517.7%5.66
  • Under 1.520.1%4.98
  • Under 2.543.4%2.30
  • Under 3.565.8%1.52

Both teams to score

  • Yes55.9%1.79
  • No44.1%2.27
  • Yes and over 2.544.9%2.23
  • VfL Wolfsburg win and yes27.5%3.64
  • Draw and yes17.5%5.71
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes10.9%9.20

Team goals

  • VfL Wolfsburg over 0.585.1%1.18
  • VfL Wolfsburg over 1.556.7%1.76
  • VfL Wolfsburg over 2.529.7%3.37
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.565.0%1.54
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.528.3%3.54
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.59.0%11.14
  • VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet35.0%2.86
  • 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet14.9%6.70
  • VfL Wolfsburg win to nil29.2%3.42
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil9.2%10.92

Handicap

  • VfL Wolfsburg −1.533.5%2.99
  • VfL Wolfsburg −2.515.9%6.27
  • 1. FC Heidenheim +1.566.5%1.50
  • 1. FC Heidenheim +2.584.1%1.19
  • 1. FC Heidenheim −1.57.5%13.41
  • VfL Wolfsburg +1.592.5%1.08

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored151 Favourite won56.3% Avg chance given to result43.3% 1X2 Brier0.555 Over 2.5 called right63.6% BTTS called right57.0%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2238.2%45.5%
40–50%4745.1%40.4%
50–60%4054.8%57.5%
60–70%2465.2%79.2%
70–80%1374.3%76.9%
80%+586.7%80.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 131 of 151 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.54460.5412
Avg chance given to result43.9%43.5%
Favourite won58.0%56.5%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 131 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 151 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.