VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfL Wolfsburg
16th · 26 pts · 32 played
LLWDD
0–1Full time
Bayern München
1st · 83 pts · 32 played
WWWWD
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for VfL Wolfsburg. VfL Wolfsburg had 6 days of rest, Bayern München 7.1 and had to travel 480 km.
Away travel480 kmRest days6 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
VfL Wolfsburg9%
Draw13%
Bayern München78%
VfL Wolfsburg8%
Draw15%
Bayern München77%
VfL Wolfsburg9%
Draw13%
Bayern München78%
VfL Wolfsburg6%
Draw10%
Bayern München85%
VfL Wolfsburg10%
Draw15%
Bayern München75%
Over 2.5 82%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–3
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 70
Team strength
VfL WolfsburgBayern München
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
94
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
50
AttackIn forecast
96
42
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL WolfsburgBayern München
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.63
2.09
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.09
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
2.72
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.91
78%
Scored inContext
100%
6%
Clean sheetsContext
34%
11.16
ShotsContext
18.75
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.19
35%
On target shareContext
44%
6.88
Shots in the boxContext
12.78
61%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
19%
1.62
OffsidesContext
2.43
14.91
Shots allowedContext
9.94
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.03
4.06
BlocksContext
3.21
3.55
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.23
64%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
395
PassesContext
685
312
Accurate passesContext
619
79%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.18
11.28
FoulsContext
8.88
8.72
Fouls sufferedContext
8.69
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.40
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
2.80
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
70%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.70
ShotsContext
19.80
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.50
36%
On target shareContext
38%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
13.40
62%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
1.11
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.30
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.60
BlocksContext
3.20
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
67%
Save rateContext
70%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
370
PassesContext
635
284
Accurate passesContext
568
77%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.08
12.50
FoulsContext
8.70
7.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,069 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayern München
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel480 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 3 May | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 480 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,069 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
4K. Koulierakis
3D. Vavro
6J. Belocian
21J. Mæhle
24C. Eriksen
5Vinicius Souza
39P. Wimmer
26S. Kumbedi
17D. Pejčinović
11A. Daghim
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
40J. Urbig(G)
20T. Bischof
21H. Ito
3M. Kim
44J. Stanišić
8L. Goretzka
6J. Kimmich
11N. Jackson
10J. Musiala
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Bayern München+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
0.63points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-10
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.94
Bayern München · Away
2.63points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 13-3-0
- Scored
- 3.31
- Conceded
- 1.06
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H | W 3–2 AW 6–2 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 HW 3–1 A | W 4–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Union Berlin | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 3–6 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A | W 3–0 AW 4–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 AL 0–3 H | W 4–2 HW 5–0 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 2–3 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | W 3–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | W 4–3 AD 2–2 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | D 3–3 HW 4–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | W 5–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 26 of 93 · 0.84 per game | 80 of 93 · 2.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 VfL Wolfsburg wins1 draws8 Bayern München wins
Goals per game1.11 – 3.33
Over 2.578%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 11 Jan 2026Bayern München8–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 18 Jan 2025Bayern München3–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 25 Aug 2024VfL Wolfsburg2–3Bayern München
- 12 May 2024Bayern München2–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 20 Dec 2023VfL Wolfsburg1–2Bayern München
- 5 Feb 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–4Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 3.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.09 | 1.09 | |
| Match goals | 3.41 | 4.72 | 4.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 97% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 78% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 66% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 6% | 34% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 0% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 3.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 5.00 | 4.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 90% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.19 | 6.23 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.23 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 11.42 | 9.66 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 23/31 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 20/31 | 53% 16/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 17/31 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.59 | 1.66 | |
| Match total | 3.53 | 3.47 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 14/32 | 44% 14/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 11/32 | 34% 11/32 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 7.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.40 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 12.60 | 11.40 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.80 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 3.70
Red cards0.16league 0.17
Cards 5+37%league 37%
Fouls22.4league 20.2
Penalties0.36league 0.35
Home wins51%league 44%
VfL Wolfsburg7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D15 Feb 26A · RB Leipzig2–22
- D9 May 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–20
- L22 Dec 24H · Borussia Dortmund1–33
- L10 Feb 24A · Union Berlin0–12
- W26 Aug 23A · 1.FC Köln2–15
Bayern München5 with this referee
Record5-0-0
Cards · opp.0.6 · 2.4
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W4 Apr 25A · FC Augsburg3–10
- W2 Nov 24H · Union Berlin3–00
- W11 Feb 23H · VfL Bochum3–01
- W17 Apr 22A · Arminia Bielefeld3–02
- W23 Oct 21H · 1899 Hoffenheim4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg32 games · scored 42 · conceded 67
9
6
0-15
7
10
16-30
5
10
31-45
8
9
46-60
7
13
61-75
6
19
76-90
Bayern München32 games · scored 116 · conceded 35
7
5
0-15
17
7
16-30
23
6
31-45
16
3
46-60
19
3
61-75
34
11
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
6
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 34 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
9
5
31-45
7
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
10
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
