Bundesliga Gameweek 33 Sat, May 9 · 17:30 Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg 16th · 26 pts · 32 played
0–1Full time
Bayern München 1st · 83 pts · 32 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
VfL Wolfsburg9.1%fair odds 10.97
Draw12.5%fair odds 7.98
Bayern München78.3%fair odds 1.28
Expected goals1.14 – 3.30total 4.44
Likeliest score1–38.1%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

VfL Wolfsburg

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Bayern München

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

VfL Wolfsburg ↓ · Bayern München →0123456+
01.43.76.47.05.83.83.7
11.14.77.38.16.64.44.2
20.82.54.24.63.82.52.4
30.31.01.61.81.41.00.9
40.10.30.50.50.40.30.3
50.00.10.10.10.10.10.1
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfL Wolfsburg goals, columns Bayern München goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–38.1%12.41
  • 1–27.3%13.64
  • 0–37.0%14.20
  • 1–46.6%15.06
  • 0–26.4%15.61
  • 0–45.8%17.23
  • 1–14.7%21.36
  • 2–34.6%21.69
  • 1–54.4%22.83
  • 2–24.2%23.84

Winning margin

0.9% VfL Wolfsburg by 3+ fair 109.16
2.3% VfL Wolfsburg by 2 fair 42.83
5.9% VfL Wolfsburg by 1 fair 17.04
12.5% Draw fair 7.98
17.4% Bayern München by 1 fair 5.76
19.4% Bayern München by 2 fair 5.16
41.6% Bayern München by 3+ fair 2.40

Goal distribution

Total goals

1%0
5%1
12%2
17%3
19%4
46%5+

VfL Wolfsburg goals

32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

Bayern München goals

4%0
12%1
20%2
22%3
42%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
VfL Wolfsburg win 9.1% 10.5% -1.4 pp
Draw 12.5% 14.7% -2.2 pp
Bayern München win 78.3% 74.8% +3.6 pp
Over 2.5 82.0% 75.5% +6.5 pp
Both teams score 65.9% 61.8% +4.0 pp
Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg 1.14 1.05 +0.09
Expected goals Bayern München 3.30 2.90 +0.40

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • VfL Wolfsburg win9.1%10.97
  • Draw12.5%7.98
  • Bayern München win78.3%1.28
  • Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw21.7%4.62
  • Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or Bayern München87.5%1.14
  • Double chance Bayern München or draw90.9%1.10
  • Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg10.4%9.59
  • Draw no bet Bayern München89.6%1.12

Goals

  • Over 0.598.6%1.01
  • Over 1.593.8%1.07
  • Over 2.582.0%1.22
  • Over 3.564.8%1.54
  • Over 4.545.6%2.19
  • Under 1.56.2%16.19
  • Under 2.518.0%5.54
  • Under 3.535.2%2.84

Both teams to score

  • Yes65.9%1.52
  • No34.1%2.93
  • Yes and over 2.561.2%1.63
  • VfL Wolfsburg win and yes6.8%14.64
  • Draw and yes11.1%8.99
  • Bayern München win and yes47.9%2.09

Team goals

  • VfL Wolfsburg over 0.568.2%1.47
  • VfL Wolfsburg over 1.531.7%3.15
  • VfL Wolfsburg over 2.510.9%9.20
  • Bayern München over 0.596.3%1.04
  • Bayern München over 1.584.1%1.19
  • Bayern München over 2.564.0%1.56
  • VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet3.7%27.02
  • Bayern München clean sheet31.8%3.14
  • VfL Wolfsburg win to nil2.3%43.73
  • Bayern München win to nil30.4%3.29

Handicap

  • VfL Wolfsburg −1.53.3%30.76
  • VfL Wolfsburg −2.50.9%109.16
  • Bayern München +1.596.7%1.03
  • Bayern München +2.599.1%1.01
  • Bayern München −1.561.0%1.64
  • VfL Wolfsburg +1.539.0%2.56

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored293 Favourite won56.0% Avg chance given to result43.1% 1X2 Brier0.565 Over 2.5 called right62.1% BTTS called right60.1%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3838.3%34.2%
40–50%9345.0%46.2%
50–60%7555.1%60.0%
60–70%4664.6%67.4%
70–80%2874.4%78.6%
80%+1387.2%76.9%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 240 of 293 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.56280.5582
Avg chance given to result43.3%42.7%
Favourite won56.7%55.4%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 293 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.