VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfL Wolfsburg
14th · 19 pts · 20 played
LWDLL
1–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 45 pts · 20 played
DWWWW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 40). Absences weigh more on VfL Wolfsburg. VfL Wolfsburg had 7.8 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 5.9 and had to travel 249 km.
Away travel249 kmRest days7.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
VfL Wolfsburg18%
Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund61%
VfL Wolfsburg20%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund56%
VfL Wolfsburg19%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund59%
VfL Wolfsburg13%
Draw18%
Borussia Dortmund69%
VfL Wolfsburg18%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund59%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTimo Gerach
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 28
Team strength
VfL WolfsburgBorussia Dortmund
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
50
AttackIn forecast
69
42
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL WolfsburgBorussia Dortmund
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.05
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.95
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
80%
Scored inContext
100%
5%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.40
ShotsContext
12.50
4.05
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
36%
On target shareContext
37%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
62%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.77
14.20
Shots allowedContext
10.10
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.42
3.84
BlocksContext
2.67
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.61
62%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
415
PassesContext
492
334
Accurate passesContext
416
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.99
10.70
FoulsContext
10.95
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
90%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.00
ShotsContext
12.70
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
40%
On target shareContext
36%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
67%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.50
Shots allowedContext
10.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.78
BlocksContext
3.00
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
55%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
432
PassesContext
479
348
Accurate passesContext
399
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.97
10.60
FoulsContext
10.40
7.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,269 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Dortmund
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel249 km844 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Jan | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 249 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,269 km | 844 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
6J. Belocian
4K. Koulierakis
3D. Vavro
2K. Fischer
27M. Arnold
24C. Eriksen
40K. Paredes
7K. Shiogai
11A. Daghim
9M. Amoura
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
25N. Süle
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
7J. Bellingham
26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier
10J. Brandt
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg-1.0 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Borussia Dortmund+1.8 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
0.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 2.10
Borussia Dortmund · Away
1.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-1
- Scored
- 1.90
- Conceded
- 1.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–8 A | L 1–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 3–4 H | D 1–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–3 H | W 2–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–3 H | D 3–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 19 of 57 · 1.00 per game | 42 of 57 · 2.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 VfL Wolfsburg wins1 draws7 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.78
Over 2.556%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets11% · 44%
- 21 Sep 2025Borussia Dortmund1–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 3 May 2025Borussia Dortmund4–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 22 Dec 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–3Borussia Dortmund
- 17 Feb 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–1Borussia Dortmund
- 23 Sep 2023Borussia Dortmund1–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 7 May 2023Borussia Dortmund6–0VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.05 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 0.95 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 5% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.70 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.79 | 5.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.16 | 4.37 | |
| Match total | 10.95 | 9.58 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 13/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 11/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 9/19 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.05 | 1.95 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 3.70 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 10/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 9/20 | 35% 7/20 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 10.44 | 9.11 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.30 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Timo Gerach Germany · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 3.76
Red cards0.32league 0.18
Cards 5+50%league 38%
Fouls20.5league 21.0
Penalties0.46league 0.35
Home wins43%league 44%
VfL Wolfsburg5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D22 Feb 25H · VfL Bochum1–12
- W8 Dec 24H · FSV Mainz 054–33
- L16 Mar 24H · FC Augsburg1–32
- D20 Jan 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–11
- L9 Apr 23A · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–21
Borussia DortmundNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg20 games · scored 28 · conceded 42
8
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
5
8
61-75
4
11
76-90
Borussia Dortmund20 games · scored 41 · conceded 19
4
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
13
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
7
5
61-75
10
7
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 24
5
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
2
5
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
5
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
