VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfL Wolfsburg
17th · 24 pts · 30 played
DLLLW
0–0Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
13th · 31 pts · 30 played
WDDLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Borussia Mönchengladbach were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Borussia Mönchengladbach. VfL Wolfsburg had 7 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.8 and had to travel 329 km.
Away travel329 kmRest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
VfL Wolfsburg38%
Draw25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach37%
VfL Wolfsburg40%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach33%
VfL Wolfsburg38%
Draw25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach37%
VfL Wolfsburg31%
Draw25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach45%
VfL Wolfsburg38%
Draw26%
Borussia Mönchengladbach37%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 106
Team strength
VfL WolfsburgBorussia Mönchengladbach
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
50
AttackIn forecast
34
42
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL WolfsburgBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.37
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
80%
Scored inContext
63%
3%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.10
ShotsContext
11.17
3.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.39
35%
On target shareContext
37%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.72
61%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.68
OffsidesContext
2.17
15.20
Shots allowedContext
14.03
5.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.53
4.21
BlocksContext
3.27
3.66
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.93
64%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
399
PassesContext
424
317
Accurate passesContext
348
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.30
FoulsContext
10.27
9.03
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.93
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.50
ShotsContext
12.10
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
33%
On target shareContext
36%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
59%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.14
OffsidesContext
1.78
17.20
Shots allowedContext
12.50
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
4.90
BlocksContext
2.90
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
67%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
367
PassesContext
426
283
Accurate passesContext
349
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.50
FoulsContext
8.70
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km357 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel329 km826 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 5.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 329 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 357 km | 826 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
4K. Koulierakis
3D. Vavro
6J. Belocian
5Vinicius Souza
25A. Zehnter
24C. Eriksen
39P. Wimmer
21J. Mæhle
9M. Amoura
17D. Pejčinović
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
2F. Chiarodia
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
6Y. Engelhardt
17J. Castrop
7K. Stöger
27R. Reitz
29J. Scally
15H. Tabaković
9F. Honorat
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
0.60points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-10
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 2.07
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
0.87points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-8
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 AL 4–6 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 3–6 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H | L 1–5 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 AL 0–3 H | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 2–3 HL 1–3 A | W 4–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | D 2–2 HW 3–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–8 A | L 1–4 AL 0–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 3–4 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Points | 21 of 87 · 0.72 per game | 31 of 87 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 VfL Wolfsburg wins2 draws4 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game1.67 – 2.00
Over 2.578%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 13 Dec 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach1–3VfL Wolfsburg
- 17 May 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach0–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 14 Jan 2025VfL Wolfsburg5–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 7 Apr 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–3Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 10 Nov 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach4–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 9 Apr 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–0VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.37 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.57 | 2.87 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 53% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 43% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 3% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 37% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.97 | 3.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.52 | 4.79 | |
| Match total | 11.49 | 8.61 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 22/29 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 66% 19/29 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 16/29 | 25% 7/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.53 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 3.53 | 3.97 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 13/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 10/30 | 37% 11/30 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.20 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 6.78 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 5.40 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 106 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.73
Red cards0.19league 0.17
Cards 5+32%league 38%
Fouls21.9league 20.3
Penalties0.31league 0.37
Home wins54%league 44%
VfL Wolfsburg4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Nov 24H · Union Berlin1–01
- W13 May 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–12
- W7 May 22A · 1.FC Köln1–02
- W29 Aug 21H · RB Leipzig1–04
Borussia Mönchengladbach5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.2
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W29 Mar 25H · RB Leipzig1–02
- D7 Dec 24H · Borussia Dortmund1–13
- L3 Feb 24A · Bayern München1–31
- D11 Sep 22A · SC Freiburg0–01
- W9 Apr 22A · SpVgg Greuther Fürth2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg30 games · scored 41 · conceded 66
9
6
0-15
7
10
16-30
5
10
31-45
7
9
46-60
7
12
61-75
6
19
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach30 games · scored 36 · conceded 50
5
8
0-15
4
8
16-30
6
11
31-45
3
2
46-60
9
9
61-75
9
12
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 13 · conceded 24
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
8
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
