VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfL Wolfsburg
13th · 15 pts · 14 played
LLDWW
3–4Full time
SC Freiburg
9th · 17 pts · 14 played
WLWLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 46). Absences weigh more on VfL Wolfsburg. VfL Wolfsburg had 7 days of rest, SC Freiburg 6 and had to travel 535 km.
Away travel535 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 3
VfL Wolfsburg35%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg39%
VfL Wolfsburg36%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg37%
VfL Wolfsburg36%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg38%
VfL Wolfsburg28%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg47%
VfL Wolfsburg35%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg38%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 87
Team strength
VfL WolfsburgSC Freiburg
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
50
AttackIn forecast
63
42
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL WolfsburgSC Freiburg
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.64
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
79%
Scored inContext
79%
7%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.71
4.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
36%
On target shareContext
32%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
8.77
62%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.67
14.21
Shots allowedContext
11.43
4.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.79
4.08
BlocksContext
3.83
3.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.21
67%
Save rateContext
59%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
395
PassesContext
433
315
Accurate passesContext
358
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.36
FoulsContext
9.14
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.29
1.93
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.40
ShotsContext
15.10
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
38%
On target shareContext
33%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
66%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.38
14.90
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.44
BlocksContext
4.57
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
68%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
396
PassesContext
443
314
Accurate passesContext
371
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.80
FoulsContext
10.00
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km657 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel535 km372 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 535 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 657 km | 372 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22.1 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
25A. Zehnter
4K. Koulierakis
14J. Seelt
26S. Kumbedi
27M. Arnold
31Y. Gerhardt
39P. Wimmer
10L. Majer
24C. Eriksen
17D. Pejčinović
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
5A. Jung
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
6P. Osterhage
8M. Eggestein
44J. Manzambi
14Y. Suzuki
29P. Treu
9L. Höler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- SC Freiburg+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
0.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 2.14
SC Freiburg · Away
0.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 3–3 H | L 1–4 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 12 of 36 · 1.00 per game | 14 of 36 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 VfL Wolfsburg wins0 draws6 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.63
Over 2.550%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets13% · 50%
- 26 Apr 2025VfL Wolfsburg0–1SC Freiburg
- 13 Dec 2024SC Freiburg3–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 27 Apr 2024SC Freiburg1–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 9 Dec 2023VfL Wolfsburg0–1SC Freiburg
- 19 May 2023SC Freiburg2–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 21 Jan 2023VfL Wolfsburg6–0SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.64 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 3.14 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 64% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 64% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 21% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.69 | 5.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.54 | 3.64 | |
| Match total | 11.23 | 9.09 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 10/13 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 8/13 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 7/13 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.79 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 4.50 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 7/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.11 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.67 | 9.67 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.90 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 87 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 3.91
Red cards0.20league 0.21
Cards 5+48%league 41%
Fouls23.4league 21.2
Penalties0.17league 0.32
Home wins34%league 47%
VfL Wolfsburg11 with this referee
Record2-3-6
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W17 May 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–00
- D8 Feb 25H · Bayer Leverkusen0–02
- L13 Dec 24A · SC Freiburg2–31
- L22 Sep 24A · Bayer Leverkusen3–46
- W30 Mar 24A · Werder Bremen2–05
SC Freiburg10 with this referee
Record7-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.2
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W19 Apr 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–23
- W13 Dec 24H · VfL Wolfsburg3–24
- W14 Apr 24A · SV Darmstadt 981–01
- W20 Jan 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–23
- D25 Nov 23H · SV Darmstadt 981–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg14 games · scored 20 · conceded 24
5
4
0-15
4
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
SC Freiburg14 games · scored 21 · conceded 23
4
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
7
31-45
4
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
4
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
