VfL Wolfsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
VfL Wolfsburg
13th · 15 pts · 14 played
LLDWW
3–4Full time
SC Freiburg
9th · 17 pts · 14 played
WLWLD
VfL Wolfsburg34.6%fair odds 2.89
Draw26.2%fair odds 3.81
SC Freiburg39.2%fair odds 2.55
Expected goals1.38 – 1.48total 2.85
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
SC Freiburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| VfL Wolfsburg ↓ · SC Freiburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfL Wolfsburg goals, columns SC Freiburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.10
- 1–28.7%11.54
- 2–18.1%12.41
- 0–17.9%12.65
- 1–07.3%13.69
- 0–06.4%15.66
- 0–26.3%15.87
- 2–26.0%16.79
- 2–05.5%18.35
- 1–34.3%23.43
Winning margin
5.7%
VfL Wolfsburg by 3+
fair 17.40
10.2%
VfL Wolfsburg by 2
fair 9.78
18.6%
VfL Wolfsburg by 1
fair 5.37
26.2%
Draw
fair 3.81
20.0%
SC Freiburg by 1
fair 4.99
11.8%
SC Freiburg by 2
fair 8.47
7.4%
SC Freiburg by 3+
fair 13.60
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
VfL Wolfsburg goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
SC Freiburg goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg win | 34.6% | 34.6% | -0.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.2% | 27.2% | -1.0 pp |
| SC Freiburg win | 39.2% | 38.2% | +1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 50.1% | +4.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.3% | 55.1% | +3.2 pp |
| Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg | 1.38 | 1.30 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals SC Freiburg | 1.48 | 1.38 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- VfL Wolfsburg win34.6%2.89
- Draw26.2%3.81
- SC Freiburg win39.2%2.55
- Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw60.8%1.65
- Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or SC Freiburg73.8%1.36
- Double chance SC Freiburg or draw65.4%1.53
- Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg46.9%2.13
- Draw no bet SC Freiburg53.1%1.88
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.4%1.28
- Over 2.554.3%1.84
- Over 3.532.0%3.13
- Over 4.516.1%6.22
- Under 1.521.6%4.63
- Under 2.545.7%2.19
- Under 3.568.0%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes58.3%1.72
- No41.7%2.40
- Yes and over 2.546.0%2.18
- VfL Wolfsburg win and yes18.2%5.51
- Draw and yes19.8%5.04
- SC Freiburg win and yes20.3%4.92
Team goals
- VfL Wolfsburg over 0.574.7%1.34
- VfL Wolfsburg over 1.540.0%2.50
- VfL Wolfsburg over 2.516.0%6.23
- SC Freiburg over 0.577.2%1.30
- SC Freiburg over 1.543.5%2.30
- SC Freiburg over 2.518.6%5.39
- VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet22.8%4.39
- SC Freiburg clean sheet25.3%3.96
- VfL Wolfsburg win to nil16.4%6.09
- SC Freiburg win to nil18.9%5.29
Handicap
- VfL Wolfsburg −1.516.0%6.26
- VfL Wolfsburg −2.55.7%17.40
- SC Freiburg +1.584.0%1.19
- SC Freiburg +2.594.3%1.06
- SC Freiburg −1.519.2%5.22
- VfL Wolfsburg +1.580.8%1.24
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored127
Favourite won56.7%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.556
Over 2.5 called right62.2%
BTTS called right55.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 41 | 45.1% | 41.5% |
| 50–60% | 33 | 54.8% | 57.6% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 65.2% | 77.3% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 74.0% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 88.9% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 108 of 127 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5408 | 0.5412 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.1% | 43.4% |
| Favourite won | 59.3% | 59.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 108 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 127 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.