La Liga Gameweek 37 Sun, May 23 · 16:00 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
Villarreal 12th · 9 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Osasuna 10th · 11 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel345 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Villarreal—%
Draw—%
Osasuna—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Villarreal)

Forecast from 8 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Villarreal and Osasuna. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

VillarrealOsasuna
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
65 Current StrengthIn forecast 46
76 AttackIn forecast 50
73 DefenceIn forecast 50
79 Form indexContext 31
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack—
Defense risk—

Osasuna

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VillarrealOsasuna
1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11
1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
2.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43
-0.69 Goals minus xGContext -0.41
67% Scored inContext 67%
11% Clean sheetsContext 33%
16.33 ShotsContext 10.78
6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
39% On target shareContext 40%
11.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.63
68% Box shareContext 64%
9% ConversionContext 10%
2.89 OffsidesContext 2.63
12.00 Shots allowedContext 13.22
3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89
5.14 BlocksContext 3.89
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
77% Save rateContext 51%
60% PossessionIn forecast 46%
573 PassesContext 390
510 Accurate passesContext 316
89% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.87 Team ratingContext 6.54
11.11 FoulsContext 14.67
11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 12.33
1.78 Yellow cardsContext 2.67
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
2.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.42
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31
-0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.42
70% Scored inContext 60%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.50 ShotsContext 10.80
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40
36% On target shareContext 41%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.56
67% Box shareContext 64%
10% ConversionContext 9%
2.90 OffsidesContext 2.44
12.00 Shots allowedContext 12.50
3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80
4.63 BlocksContext 3.70
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
72% Save rateContext 53%
59% PossessionIn forecast 46%
560 PassesContext 373
493 Accurate passesContext 298
88% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.54
10.40 FoulsContext 15.20
12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,167 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Elche0–02.1 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Napoli3–11.7 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Real Madrid0–10.7 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Levante3–11.9 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts
Osasuna
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel345 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Racing Santander2–01.7 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Real Betis2–50.8 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Rayo Vallecano1–11.5 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Atletico Madrid0–40.9 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Espanyol0–21.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Villarreal Osasuna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 16 May7La Liga 2026-2027, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km345 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,167 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Elche (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
25P. Gulácsi(G)
23Sergi Cardona 2Logan Costa 8J. Foyth 3A. Freeman
10Alberto Moleiro 16Carlos Macia 14Santi Comesaña 11I. Akhomach
21T. Oluwaseyi 22Ayoze Pérez
Osasuna Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Racing Santander (H) 2–0, 18 Oct
13Aitor Fernández(G)
23Abel Bretones 22F. Boyomo 24Catena 19V. Rosier
16Moi Gómez 8Iker Muñoz 7Moncayola
21J. Dubasin 17A. Budimir 14Rubén García

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Villarreal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Osasuna Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50
Osasuna · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.50
Conceded
3.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentVillarrealOsasuna
Levante W 3–1 H D 0–0 H
Real Betis L 1–2 H L 2–5 A
Alaves L 0–1 A L 2–5 A
Atletico Madrid D 2–2 A L 0–4 A
Racing Santander D 2–2 A W 2–0 H
Points5 of 15 · 1.00 per game4 of 15 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

5 Villarreal wins3 draws2 Osasuna wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.20 Over 2.570% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 10%
  • 31 Jan 2026Osasuna2–2Villarreal
  • 20 Sep 2025Villarreal2–1Osasuna
  • 3 May 2025Villarreal4–2Osasuna
  • 24 Nov 2024Osasuna2–2Villarreal
  • 25 May 2024Osasuna1–1Villarreal
  • 26 Nov 2023Villarreal3–1Osasuna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

VillarrealOsasunaForecast
Scored per game 1.441.11
Conceded per game 1.442.00
Match goals 2.893.11
Over 1.5 67%78%
Over 2.5 67%44%
Over 3.5 56%33%
Both teams scored 67%44%
Clean sheets 11%33%
Failed to score 33%33%
Games99
VillarrealOsasunaForecast
Scored per game 1.601.00
Conceded per game 1.501.90
Match goals 3.102.90
Over 1.5 70%70%
Over 2.5 70%40%
Over 3.5 60%30%
Both teams scored 70%40%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 30%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

VillarrealOsasunaLeague
Corners
Corners won7.114.00
Corners conceded4.444.50
Match total11.558.509.91
Over 8.567% 6/938% 3/8
Over 9.567% 6/938% 3/8
Over 10.567% 6/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.782.67
Opponent cards3.002.00
Match total4.784.674.73
Over 3.578% 7/956% 5/9
Over 4.556% 5/956% 5/9
VillarrealOsasunaLeague
Corners
Corners won6.504.00
Corners conceded4.704.22
Match total11.208.229.91
Over 8.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Over 9.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Over 10.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.702.60
Opponent cards2.901.90
Match total4.604.504.73
Over 3.580% 8/1050% 5/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Villarreal9 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
5 6 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Osasuna9 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1 3 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2 0-15
4 16-30
3 5 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
6 5 76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1 3 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 5 46-60
2 3 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Malaga May 2316:00 Atletico Madrid Athletic Club May 2316:00 Valencia Elche May 2316:00 Villarreal Osasuna May 2316:00 Sevilla Getafe May 2316:00 Celta Vigo Real Sociedad May 2316:00 Alaves Real Madrid May 2316:00 Deportivo La Coruna Espanyol May 2316:00 Rayo Vallecano Real Betis May 2316:00 Racing Santander Levante May 2316:00