Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Werder Bremen
15th · 18 pts · 18 played
LDLDL
0–2Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
3rd · 36 pts · 18 played
WDWWW
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for 1899 Hoffenheim. Werder Bremen had 3.2 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 3.2 and had to travel 425 km.
Away travel425 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d3 · 3
Werder Bremen33%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim42%
Werder Bremen35%
Draw27%
1899 Hoffenheim37%
Werder Bremen33%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim42%
Werder Bremen26%
Draw24%
1899 Hoffenheim50%
Werder Bremen33%
Draw26%
1899 Hoffenheim41%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
RefereeFrank Willenborg
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 54
Team strength
Werder Bremen1899 Hoffenheim
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
56
AttackIn forecast
46
45
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder Bremen1899 Hoffenheim
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.11
1.94
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
61%
Scored inContext
83%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
11.89
ShotsContext
12.89
4.18
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
33%
On target shareContext
38%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
9.18
58%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
1.79
OffsidesContext
2.27
14.89
Shots allowedContext
11.11
5.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.94
3.83
BlocksContext
3.29
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.19
65%
Save rateContext
76%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
457
PassesContext
462
376
Accurate passesContext
373
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.94
FoulsContext
14.61
9.94
Fouls sufferedContext
9.17
2.28
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.81
50%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.70
ShotsContext
12.90
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
30%
On target shareContext
37%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
55%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
18%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.56
13.20
Shots allowedContext
11.40
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.10
BlocksContext
3.33
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
67%
Save rateContext
83%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
462
PassesContext
484
383
Accurate passesContext
392
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.80
FoulsContext
14.30
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km911 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel425 km194 km in 14d
Schedule load29%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Moderate · 29 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 3.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 425 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 911 km | 194 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
31Karim Coulibaly
14S. Lynen
22J. Malatini
2O. Deman
6J. Stage
18Cameron Puertas
20R. Schmid
3Y. Sugawara
11J. Njinmah
19J. Milošević
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
7L. Avdullahu
22A. Prass
27A. Kramarić
18W. Burger
6G. Prömel
19T. Lemperle
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-2
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.88
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
2.00points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-1
- Scored
- 1.89
- Conceded
- 1.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 H | D 0–0 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 A | W 4–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Union Berlin | W 1–0 H | W 4–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–4 A | L 1–4 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 4–0 A | W 5–1 H |
| Points | 18 of 54 · 1.00 per game | 36 of 54 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Werder Bremen wins0 draws4 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game1.83 – 2.33
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 16 Feb 2025Werder Bremen1–31899 Hoffenheim
- 29 Sep 20241899 Hoffenheim3–4Werder Bremen
- 3 Mar 20241899 Hoffenheim2–1Werder Bremen
- 7 Oct 2023Werder Bremen2–31899 Hoffenheim
- 2 Apr 2023Werder Bremen1–21899 Hoffenheim
- 7 Oct 20221899 Hoffenheim1–2Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 2.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.94 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 3.33 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 67% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 67% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 17% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Werder Bremen | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.20 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.42 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.17 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 11.59 | 10.00 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 9/12 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 9/12 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 6/12 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.56 | 1.39 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.33 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 11/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 7/18 | 17% 3/18 | |
| Werder Bremen | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.43 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 11.43 | 8.40 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.30 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Frank Willenborg 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.39league 3.73
Red cards0.15league 0.18
Cards 5+48%league 38%
Fouls22.1league 21.0
Penalties0.26league 0.33
Home wins41%league 45%
Werder Bremen3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L26 Sep 25A · Bayern München0–40
- L16 Feb 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–32
- W5 Feb 23A · VfB Stuttgart2–05
1899 Hoffenheim11 with this referee
Record5-3-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- W2 Nov 25A · VfL Wolfsburg3–22
- D3 May 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–40
- W16 Feb 25A · Werder Bremen3–13
- W23 Nov 24H · RB Leipzig4–32
- D19 Dec 23H · SV Darmstadt 983–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen18 games · scored 21 · conceded 35
2
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
8
61-75
9
10
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim18 games · scored 38 · conceded 22
4
4
0-15
7
4
16-30
9
2
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
6
8
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
3
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
6
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
