Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Werder Bremen
15th · 18 pts · 19 played
DLDLL
1–1Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
11th · 20 pts · 19 played
LWLDL
Our take
Werder Bremen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Werder Bremen. Werder Bremen had 3.8 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 6 and had to travel 265 km.
Away travel265 kmRest days3.8 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Werder Bremen50%
Draw24%
Borussia Mönchengladbach26%
Werder Bremen45%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach28%
Werder Bremen49%
Draw25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach26%
Werder Bremen42%
Draw25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach33%
Werder Bremen48%
Draw25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach26%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 119
Team strength
Werder BremenBorussia Mönchengladbach
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
56
AttackIn forecast
34
45
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
1.95
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
58%
Scored inContext
53%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
12.63
ShotsContext
10.89
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.59
31%
On target shareContext
38%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
58%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.36
14.74
Shots allowedContext
14.68
5.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.47
3.84
BlocksContext
3.32
3.68
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.79
64%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
459
PassesContext
429
377
Accurate passesContext
355
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.79
FoulsContext
10.89
9.95
Fouls sufferedContext
10.58
2.26
Yellow cardsContext
1.26
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
40%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.80
ShotsContext
9.90
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
25%
On target shareContext
33%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
56%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.43
13.40
Shots allowedContext
14.50
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.30
BlocksContext
2.70
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
66%
Save rateContext
80%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
464
PassesContext
434
385
Accurate passesContext
353
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.40
FoulsContext
10.70
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km519 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel265 km713 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Jan | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 265 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 519 km | 713 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
31Karim Coulibaly
32M. Friedl
22J. Malatini
2O. Deman
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
3Y. Sugawara
7S. Mbangula
20R. Schmid
11J. Njinmah
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
20L. Netz
2F. Chiarodia
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
29J. Scally
10F. Neuhaus
6Y. Engelhardt
27R. Reitz
9F. Honorat
15H. Tabaković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.89
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
1.22points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-4
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–2 H | L 1–5 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A | L 4–6 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 H | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 A | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Union Berlin | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 1–0 H | W 4–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–4 A | L 0–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 15 of 54 · 0.83 per game | 20 of 54 · 1.11 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Werder Bremen wins3 draws2 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game2.57 – 2.14
Over 2.5100%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets14% · 0%
- 14 Sep 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach0–4Werder Bremen
- 15 Mar 2025Werder Bremen2–4Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 3 Nov 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach4–1Werder Bremen
- 4 May 2024Werder Bremen2–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 15 Dec 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–2Werder Bremen
- 17 Mar 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–2Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.95 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 3.05 | 2.89 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 58% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 32% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 47% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Werder Bremen | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.70 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.46 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.23 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 11.69 | 9.44 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 10/13 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 77% 10/13 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 7/13 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.42 | 1.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 4.05 | 3.37 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 12/19 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 8/19 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Werder Bremen | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.38 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 11.63 | 8.40 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 0.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 2.50 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 119 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.75league 3.73
Red cards0.15league 0.18
Cards 5+55%league 39%
Fouls21.7league 21.0
Penalties0.31league 0.33
Home wins45%league 44%
Werder Bremen4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Nov 25H · VfL Wolfsburg2–12
- D15 Dec 23A · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–22
- L18 Aug 23H · Bayern München0–42
- L4 Mar 23A · FC Augsburg1–23
Borussia Mönchengladbach7 with this referee
Record1-5-1
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D21 Sep 25A · Bayer Leverkusen1–14
- L11 Jan 25H · Bayern München0–13
- D9 Mar 24H · 1.FC Köln3–33
- D15 Dec 23H · Werder Bremen2–24
- W10 Nov 23H · VfL Wolfsburg4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen19 games · scored 21 · conceded 37
2
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
8
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
8
61-75
9
10
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach19 games · scored 23 · conceded 32
2
6
0-15
2
6
16-30
5
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
6
6
61-75
6
7
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
8
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
