Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Werder Bremen were slight favourites.
Werder Bremen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 31). Werder Bremen had 7.8 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 7 and had to travel 95 km.
Away travel95 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Werder Bremen58%
Draw22%
FC St. Pauli19%
Werder Bremen57%
Draw24%
FC St. Pauli19%
Werder Bremen58%
Draw23%
FC St. Pauli19%
Werder Bremen50%
Draw24%
FC St. Pauli25%
Werder Bremen57%
Draw24%
FC St. Pauli19%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySören Storks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 20
Team strength
Werder Bremen
FC St. Pauli
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
56
AttackIn forecast
20
45
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenFC St. Pauli
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
2.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.00
ShotsContext
12.20
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
44%
On target shareContext
46%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
63%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.67
16.20
Shots allowedContext
8.60
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.20
BlocksContext
2.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
50%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
455
PassesContext
471
375
Accurate passesContext
383
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.20
FoulsContext
13.60
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
60%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.40
ShotsContext
10.10
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
39%
On target shareContext
42%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
72%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.88
15.20
Shots allowedContext
9.90
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.40
BlocksContext
3.33
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
68%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
461
PassesContext
426
379
Accurate passesContext
345
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.81
8.60
FoulsContext
12.70
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,165 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel95 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 26 Sep | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 95 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,165 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 15.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
13K. Hein(G)
27F. Agu
31Karim Coulibaly
32M. Friedl
3Y. Sugawara
18Cameron Puertas
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
7S. Mbangula
20R. Schmid
11J. Njinmah
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
21L. Ritzka
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
23Louis Oppie
16J. Fujita
6J. Sands
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
10D. Sinani
28M. Pereira Lage
19M. Kaars
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- FC St. Pauli+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
FC St. Pauli · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 3–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Werder Bremen wins1 draws0 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 50%
- 27 Apr 2025Werder Bremen0–0FC St. Pauli
- 14 Dec 2024FC St. Pauli0–2Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Werder Bremen | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 11.66 | 8.60 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.40 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Werder Bremen | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.88 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 10.26 | 7.60 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.90 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.30league 4.28
Red cards0.15league 0.30
Cards 5+55%league 46%
Fouls20.6league 22.9
Penalties0.20league 0.50
Home wins40%league 37%
Werder Bremen3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D3 May 25A · Union Berlin2–24
- L7 Feb 25A · Bayern München0–33
- W9 Nov 24H · Holstein Kiel2–13
FC St. Pauli2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D20 Apr 25H · Bayer Leverkusen1–11
- W26 Jan 25H · Union Berlin3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen5 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
FC St. Pauli5 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
4
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
