Werder Bremen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Werder Bremen58.3%fair odds 1.72
Draw22.5%fair odds 4.45
FC St. Pauli19.2%fair odds 5.20
Expected goals1.99 – 1.06total 3.05
Likeliest score1–110.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC St. Pauli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Werder Bremen ↓ · FC St. Pauli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Werder Bremen goals, columns FC St. Pauli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%9.50
- 2–19.9%10.06
- 2–09.3%10.72
- 1–08.9%11.30
- 3–16.6%15.18
- 3–06.2%16.16
- 1–25.3%18.80
- 2–25.3%18.90
- 0–05.2%19.06
- 0–14.5%22.25
Winning margin
17.3%
Werder Bremen by 3+
fair 5.76
17.9%
Werder Bremen by 2
fair 5.58
23.0%
Werder Bremen by 1
fair 4.35
22.5%
Draw
fair 4.45
12.1%
FC St. Pauli by 1
fair 8.29
5.1%
FC St. Pauli by 2
fair 19.45
2.0%
FC St. Pauli by 3+
fair 48.93
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Werder Bremen goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
FC St. Pauli goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen win | 58.3% | 57.1% | +1.2 pp |
| Draw | 22.5% | 23.6% | -1.1 pp |
| FC St. Pauli win | 19.2% | 19.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 54.6% | +4.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.1% | 54.0% | +3.1 pp |
| Expected goals Werder Bremen | 1.99 | 1.87 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals FC St. Pauli | 1.06 | 1.00 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Werder Bremen win58.3%1.72
- Draw22.5%4.45
- FC St. Pauli win19.2%5.20
- Double chance Werder Bremen or draw80.8%1.24
- Double chance Werder Bremen or FC St. Pauli77.5%1.29
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw41.7%2.40
- Draw no bet Werder Bremen75.2%1.33
- Draw no bet FC St. Pauli24.8%4.03
Goals
- Over 0.594.8%1.06
- Over 1.581.4%1.23
- Over 2.558.9%1.70
- Over 3.536.5%2.74
- Over 4.519.4%5.16
- Under 1.518.6%5.38
- Under 2.541.1%2.43
- Under 3.563.5%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes57.1%1.75
- No42.9%2.33
- Yes and over 2.546.6%2.15
- Werder Bremen win and yes29.0%3.44
- Draw and yes17.2%5.80
- FC St. Pauli win and yes10.8%9.25
Team goals
- Werder Bremen over 0.586.3%1.16
- Werder Bremen over 1.559.1%1.69
- Werder Bremen over 2.532.0%3.12
- FC St. Pauli over 0.565.5%1.53
- FC St. Pauli over 1.528.8%3.47
- FC St. Pauli over 2.59.3%10.80
- Werder Bremen clean sheet34.5%2.90
- FC St. Pauli clean sheet13.7%7.31
- Werder Bremen win to nil29.2%3.42
- FC St. Pauli win to nil8.4%11.85
Handicap
- Werder Bremen −1.535.3%2.83
- Werder Bremen −2.517.3%5.76
- FC St. Pauli +1.564.7%1.55
- FC St. Pauli +2.582.7%1.21
- FC St. Pauli −1.57.2%13.92
- Werder Bremen +1.592.8%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored46
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.581
Over 2.5 called right65.2%
BTTS called right60.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.0% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 45.5% | 38.5% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 53.9% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 66.1% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 28 of 46 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5426 | 0.5423 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.0% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 53.6% | 60.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 28 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓1.FC Köln 1–2 VfB Stuttgart32·26·42
- ✗SC Freiburg 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim53·24·23
- ✓Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–6 Eintracht Frankfurt27·25·49
- ✓FC St. Pauli 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen15·20·65
- ✗1. FC Heidenheim 2–1 FC Augsburg35·27·38
- ✓FSV Mainz 05 0–2 Borussia Dortmund28·25·47
- ✓VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 RB Leipzig35·26·39
- ✓Bayern München 4–0 Werder Bremen78·14·8
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 46 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.