Werder Bremen
Attack+16%
Defense risk−18%
Werder Bremen
7th · 8 pts · 5 played
LWDWD
2–2Full time
SC Paderborn 07
15th · 4 pts · 5 played
DLLWL
Our take
Werder Bremen were slight favourites.
Werder Bremen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 37). Absences weigh more on Werder Bremen. Werder Bremen were without Y. Regeer and S. Lynen. Werder Bremen had 7.8 days of rest, SC Paderborn 07 7 and had to travel 151 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel151 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Werder Bremen49%
Draw23%
SC Paderborn 0728%
Werder Bremen47%
Draw26%
SC Paderborn 0726%
Werder Bremen51%
Draw23%
SC Paderborn 0726%
Werder Bremen41%
Draw24%
SC Paderborn 0735%
Werder Bremen49%
Draw24%
SC Paderborn 0728%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
14°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 17 km/h
- Humidity 59%
Referee · GermanyRobert Schröder
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 74
Team strength
Werder BremenSC Paderborn 07
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
56
AttackIn forecast
34
45
DefenceIn forecast
33
69
Form indexContext
34
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Paderborn 07
Attack+12%
Defense risk−14%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
Werder BremenSC Paderborn 07
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.68
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
100%
Scored inContext
20%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.20
ShotsContext
14.00
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
46%
On target shareContext
19%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
65%
Box shareContext
54%
15%
ConversionContext
4%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.20
16.20
Shots allowedContext
18.20
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
5.00
BlocksContext
7.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
62%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
445
PassesContext
452
372
Accurate passesContext
365
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.20
FoulsContext
9.80
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
80%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.70
ShotsContext
14.50
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
41%
On target shareContext
28%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
10.25
59%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.29
15.70
Shots allowedContext
14.90
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.50
BlocksContext
4.89
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
67%
Save rateContext
79%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
440
PassesContext
453
362
Accurate passesContext
367
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.60
FoulsContext
10.70
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
LWDWD
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km392 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 8 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +3.4 vs expected
SC Paderborn 07
DLLWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel151 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 34 · 4 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
SC Paderborn 07 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 9 Oct | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 392 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
1K. Hein(G)
2O. Deman
32M. Friedl
5A. Pieper
13Arthur
44Y. Regeer
15L. Reis
17M. Grüll
20Chuky
18E. Dinkçi
10N. Füllkrug
SC Paderborn 07
Confirmed XI
15N. Noll(G)
22M. Hansen
25T. Scheller
21J. ter Horst
5S. Castañeda
23R. Obermair
40G. Vidović
28L. Ulrich
17L. Curda
27S. Tigges
30S. Marino
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −25.5% · Defence line −25.0% of weighted minutes
- MID Y. Regeer Starter 6.80 Att −7.1% Def −5.8%
- MID S. Lynen Starter 6.79 Att −6.3% Def −5.2%
- MID J. Stage Starter 6.94 Att −5.8% Def −4.8%
- DEF A. Pieper Starter 6.95 Def −8.3%
- ATT J. Njinmah Rotation 6.63 Att −4.5%
- ATT K. Topp Rotation 6.39 Att −1.6%
SC Paderborn 07
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −1.9% · Defence line −1.3% of weighted minutes
- MID S. Klaas Rotation 6.76 Att −1.9% Def −1.3%
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen-2.1 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- SC Paderborn 07+1.9 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
SC Paderborn 07 · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | SC Paderborn 07 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 20% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 80% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Werder Bremen | SC Paderborn 07 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.00 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 80% | |
| Games | 10 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | SC Paderborn 07 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 11.00 | 10.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 2.60 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Werder Bremen | SC Paderborn 07 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.70 | 10.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 4.30 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Schröder Germany · 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 3.46
Red cards0.18league 0.11
Cards 5+42%league 17%
Fouls23.3league 22.6
Penalties0.34league 0.13
Home wins49%league 52%
Werder Bremen7 with this referee
Record5-0-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W19 Apr 25H · VfL Bochum1–03
- W21 Apr 24H · VfB Stuttgart2–13
- L10 Feb 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–21
- W2 Sep 23H · FSV Mainz 054–02
- W22 Apr 23A · Hertha BSC4–22
SC Paderborn 07No previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen5 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
SC Paderborn 075 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
SC Paderborn 0710 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
