Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Werder Bremen
12th · 16 pts · 13 played
DWLDL
0–4Full time
VfB Stuttgart
7th · 22 pts · 13 played
LWDLL
Our take
It was too close to call.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 51). Werder Bremen had 7.2 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 3 and had to travel 478 km.
Away travel478 kmRest days7.2 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 2
Werder Bremen37%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart38%
Werder Bremen37%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart36%
Werder Bremen37%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart37%
Werder Bremen29%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart46%
Werder Bremen37%
Draw27%
VfB Stuttgart36%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 57
Team strength
Werder BremenVfB Stuttgart
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
56
AttackIn forecast
70
45
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenVfB Stuttgart
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.62
1.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.69
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
77%
Scored inContext
92%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
12.46
ShotsContext
15.00
4.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.08
36%
On target shareContext
34%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
9.38
59%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.82
OffsidesContext
2.46
15.08
Shots allowedContext
12.15
5.85
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.54
3.92
BlocksContext
3.23
3.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.55
63%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
457
PassesContext
515
377
Accurate passesContext
438
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.62
FoulsContext
10.85
9.92
Fouls sufferedContext
12.15
2.54
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.70
ShotsContext
14.60
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
32%
On target shareContext
34%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
58%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
1.88
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.90
Shots allowedContext
12.70
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.70
BlocksContext
3.60
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
69%
Save rateContext
65%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
463
PassesContext
496
381
Accurate passesContext
421
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.60
FoulsContext
12.40
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km190 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel478 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 478 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 190 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
32M. Friedl
31Karim Coulibaly
5A. Pieper
3Y. Sugawara
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
7S. Mbangula
20R. Schmid
11J. Njinmah
17M. Grüll
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
18J. Leweling
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
4J. Vagnoman
28N. Nartey
11B. El Khannouss
26D. Undav
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Union Berlin | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–4 A | L 0–5 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 4–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 15 of 33 · 1.36 per game | 18 of 33 · 1.64 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Werder Bremen wins2 draws1 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 13 Apr 2025VfB Stuttgart1–2Werder Bremen
- 30 Nov 2024Werder Bremen2–2VfB Stuttgart
- 21 Apr 2024Werder Bremen2–1VfB Stuttgart
- 2 Dec 2023VfB Stuttgart2–0Werder Bremen
- 5 Feb 2023VfB Stuttgart0–2Werder Bremen
- 13 Aug 2022Werder Bremen2–2VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.62 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.85 | 1.69 | |
| Match goals | 3.23 | 3.31 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 77% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 62% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 8% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Werder Bremen | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.38 | 4.54 | |
| Match total | 12.63 | 9.92 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.69 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.31 | 1.92 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.92 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 8/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 4/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Werder Bremen | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.83 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.17 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 8.40 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.50 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 3.94
Red cards0.23league 0.21
Cards 5+39%league 42%
Fouls22.8league 21.2
Penalties0.32league 0.33
Home wins46%league 47%
Werder Bremen8 with this referee
Record2-4-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W14 Dec 24A · FC St. Pauli2–03
- D31 Aug 24H · Borussia Dortmund0–02
- D5 Apr 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
- W27 Jan 24H · SC Freiburg3–12
- D20 May 23H · 1.FC Köln1–14
VfB Stuttgart6 with this referee
Record1-3-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L23 Aug 25A · Union Berlin1–24
- L1 Feb 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–22
- W26 Oct 24H · Holstein Kiel2–13
- D11 Mar 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–11
- D13 Aug 22A · Werder Bremen2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen13 games · scored 18 · conceded 24
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
8
61-75
7
5
76-90
VfB Stuttgart13 games · scored 21 · conceded 22
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
9
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
6
61-75
4
5
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
