Werder Bremen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Werder Bremen
12th · 16 pts · 13 played
DWLDL
0–4Full time
VfB Stuttgart
7th · 22 pts · 13 played
LWDLL
Werder Bremen36.7%fair odds 2.73
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.92
VfB Stuttgart37.8%fair odds 2.64
Expected goals1.49 – 1.51total 3.00
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Werder Bremen ↓ · VfB Stuttgart → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Werder Bremen goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.47
- 1–28.5%11.80
- 2–18.3%12.01
- 0–16.9%14.39
- 1–06.8%14.67
- 2–26.3%15.88
- 0–25.7%17.54
- 0–05.6%17.92
- 2–05.5%18.16
- 1–34.3%23.41
Winning margin
6.8%
Werder Bremen by 3+
fair 14.76
11.0%
Werder Bremen by 2
fair 9.11
18.9%
Werder Bremen by 1
fair 5.29
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.92
19.3%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 5.19
11.4%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 8.79
7.2%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 13.90
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Werder Bremen goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
VfB Stuttgart goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen win | 36.7% | 36.6% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 27.0% | -1.5 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 37.8% | 36.4% | +1.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 51.1% | +6.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.9% | 55.9% | +5.0 pp |
| Expected goals Werder Bremen | 1.49 | 1.36 | +0.13 |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 1.51 | 1.36 | +0.15 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Werder Bremen win36.7%2.73
- Draw25.5%3.92
- VfB Stuttgart win37.8%2.64
- Double chance Werder Bremen or draw62.2%1.61
- Double chance Werder Bremen or VfB Stuttgart74.5%1.34
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw63.3%1.58
- Draw no bet Werder Bremen49.2%2.03
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart50.8%1.97
Goals
- Over 0.594.4%1.06
- Over 1.580.7%1.24
- Over 2.557.6%1.73
- Over 3.535.2%2.84
- Over 4.518.4%5.42
- Under 1.519.3%5.17
- Under 2.542.4%2.36
- Under 3.564.8%1.54
Both teams to score
- Yes60.9%1.64
- No39.1%2.56
- Yes and over 2.549.1%2.04
- Werder Bremen win and yes20.2%4.95
- Draw and yes19.9%5.02
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes20.8%4.81
Team goals
- Werder Bremen over 0.577.4%1.29
- Werder Bremen over 1.543.7%2.29
- Werder Bremen over 2.518.8%5.33
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.578.0%1.28
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.544.6%2.24
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.519.4%5.15
- Werder Bremen clean sheet22.0%4.54
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet22.6%4.42
- Werder Bremen win to nil16.5%6.08
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil17.0%5.87
Handicap
- Werder Bremen −1.517.8%5.63
- Werder Bremen −2.56.8%14.76
- VfB Stuttgart +1.582.2%1.22
- VfB Stuttgart +2.593.2%1.07
- VfB Stuttgart −1.518.6%5.39
- Werder Bremen +1.581.4%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored125
Favourite won56.0%
Avg chance given to result43.1%
1X2 Brier0.559
Over 2.5 called right62.4%
BTTS called right56.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 38.1% | 46.7% |
| 40–50% | 41 | 45.1% | 41.5% |
| 50–60% | 33 | 54.8% | 57.6% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 65.2% | 77.3% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 74.3% | 72.7% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 88.9% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 106 of 125 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5442 | 0.5450 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.9% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 58.5% | 58.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 106 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Bayern München 2–2 FSV Mainz 0587·9·4
- ✗SC Freiburg 1–1 Borussia Dortmund29·25·47
- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 1.FC Köln72·17·11
- ✓FC St. Pauli 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim40·27·33
- ✓Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FC Augsburg58·23·19
- ✓1899 Hoffenheim 4–1 Hamburger SV57·23·21
- ✗Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg47·26·27
- ✗Union Berlin 3–1 RB Leipzig27·26·48
- ✓Borussia Dortmund 2–0 1899 Hoffenheim68·19·13
- ✗Hamburger SV 3–2 Werder Bremen33·26·41
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 125 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.