West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 53). West Ham had 16.2 days of rest, Brentford 15.1 and had to travel 13 km.
Away travel13 kmRest days16.2 · 15.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
West Ham36%
Draw27%
Brentford38%
West Ham35%
Draw27%
Brentford38%
West Ham35%
Draw27%
Brentford38%
West Ham29%
Draw26%
Brentford45%
West Ham35%
Draw27%
Brentford38%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndy Madley
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 117
Team strength
West Ham
Brentford
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
68
AttackIn forecast
73
64
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBrentford
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamBrentford
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
2.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
57%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
9.86
ShotsContext
8.14
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
38%
On target shareContext
44%
8.17
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
77%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.80
14.00
Shots allowedContext
13.43
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.14
4.29
BlocksContext
4.86
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
53%
Save rateContext
66%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
396
PassesContext
319
326
Accurate passesContext
249
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.67
10.86
FoulsContext
12.57
9.29
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.30
ShotsContext
9.60
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
39%
On target shareContext
45%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.88
78%
Box shareContext
77%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.10
Shots allowedContext
13.90
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.20
BlocksContext
4.90
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
60%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
434
PassesContext
340
365
Accurate passesContext
271
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.20
FoulsContext
12.10
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest16.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Brentford
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel13 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Brentford |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16.2Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 15.1Premier League 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 13 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
2K. Walker-Peters
3M. Kilman
25J. Todibo
30O. Scarles
39A. Irving
28T. Souček
18Mateus Fernandes
7C. Summerville
20J. Bowen
10Lucas Paquetá
Brentford
Confirmed XI
1C. Kelleher(G)
20K. Ajer
4S. van den Berg
22N. Collins
33M. Kayode
6J. Henderson
18Y. Yarmoliuk
7K. Schade
24M. Damsgaard
19D. Ouattara
9Thiago
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Brentford
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Brentford-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
0.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 3.33
Brentford · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | West Ham | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Chelsea | L 1–5 H | D 2–2 H |
| Sunderland | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 West Ham wins1 draws6 Brentford wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.88
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 15 Feb 2025West Ham0–1Brentford
- 28 Sep 2024Brentford1–1West Ham
- 26 Feb 2024West Ham4–2Brentford
- 4 Nov 2023Brentford3–2West Ham
- 14 May 2023Brentford2–0West Ham
- 30 Dec 2022West Ham0–2Brentford
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Brentford | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| West Ham | Brentford | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Brentford | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.29 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 12.86 | 8.85 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 86% 6/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 86% 6/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.14 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 2.71 | 4.29 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 2/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| West Ham | Brentford | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 13.11 | 9.20 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 89% 8/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.60 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andy Madley 117 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.34league 3.63
Red cards0.11league 0.13
Cards 5+30%league 41%
Fouls23.1league 21.9
Penalties0.15league 0.20
Home wins49%league 48%
West Ham9 with this referee
Record2-1-6
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L13 Apr 25A · Liverpool1–22
- L19 Oct 24A · Tottenham1–44
- L5 May 24A · Chelsea0–53
- L4 Feb 24A · Manchester United0–31
- L16 Sep 23H · Manchester City1–33
Brentford8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.1
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L18 Jan 25H · Liverpool0–22
- D27 Dec 24A · Brighton0–02
- W5 Oct 24H · Wolves5–32
- D3 Apr 24H · Brighton0–01
- L27 Dec 23H · Wolves1–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham7 games · scored 6 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
1
76-90
Brentford7 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
6
61-75
5
1
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
