West Ham vs Brighton – 30 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 19 Tue, Dec 30 · 19:30 London Stadium, London

West Ham 18th · 13 pts · 18 played DDLLL

2–2Full time

Brighton 13th · 24 pts · 18 played LDLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brighton were slight favourites.

Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 52). Brighton usually keep the ball (53% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. West Ham had 3.2 days of rest, Brighton 3.2 and had to travel 72 km.

Away travel72 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

West Ham29%

Draw26%

Brighton45%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.60

West Ham30%

Draw27%

Brighton43%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.49

West Ham30%

Draw26%

Brighton44%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.57

West Ham23%

Draw24%

Brighton53%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.79

West Ham30%

Draw27%

Brighton44%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.51

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Salisbury

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 79

Team strength

West Ham

Brighton

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

68 AttackIn forecast 87

64 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

West Ham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

West Ham

Brighton

1.06 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.39

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

61% Scored inContext 78%

6% Clean sheetsContext 22%

10.00 ShotsContext 13.33

3.94 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

35% On target shareContext 33%

7.18 Shots in the boxContext 8.39

69% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.38

15.44 Shots allowedContext 12.78

5.39 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

4.76 BlocksContext 3.47

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

66% Save rateContext 71%

42% PossessionIn forecast 52%

371 PassesContext 455

296 Accurate passesContext 382

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.67 FoulsContext 12.06

10.83 Fouls sufferedContext 10.22

1.56 Yellow cardsContext 2.44

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

70% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.40 ShotsContext 14.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

35% On target shareContext 31%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

68% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 10%

2.40 OffsidesContext 1.86

15.80 Shots allowedContext 14.10

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

5.11 BlocksContext 3.90

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

75% Save rateContext 75%

39% PossessionIn forecast 56%

356 PassesContext 505

279 Accurate passesContext 430

78% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.90

10.60 FoulsContext 11.60

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

West Ham

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel72 km143 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	West Ham	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Dec	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	72 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	524 km	143 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

West Ham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23A. Areola(G)

30O. Scarles 3M. Kilman 25J. Todibo 2K. Walker-Peters

32F. Potts 27S. Magassa

10Lucas Paquetá 18Mateus Fernandes 20J. Bowen

9C. Wilson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 34J. Veltman

20J. Milner 26Y. Ayari

29M. De Cuyper 25D. Gómez 11Y. Minteh

18D. Welbeck

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

West Ham Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

West Ham-0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Brighton+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

West Ham · Home 0.67points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-7
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 2.33

Brighton · Away 0.89points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-5
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 1.56

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	West Ham	Brighton
Fulham	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 H
Manchester City	L 0–3 A	W 2–1 H
Aston Villa	L 2–3 H	L 3–4 H
Manchester United	D 1–1 A	L 2–4 A
Liverpool	L 0–2 H	L 0–2 A
Bournemouth	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 A
Newcastle	W 3–1 H	W 2–1 H
Leeds	L 1–2 A	W 3–0 H
Brentford	L 0–2 H	W 2–1 H
Arsenal	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
Everton	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 A
Crystal Palace	L 1–2 H	D 0–0 A
Tottenham	L 0–3 H	D 2–2 H
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 A	W 2–0 A
Chelsea	L 1–5 H	W 3–1 A
Sunderland	L 0–3 A	D 0–0 H
Points	9 of 48 · 0.56 per game	22 of 48 · 1.38 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

1 West Ham wins5 draws4 Brighton wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.70 Over 2.540% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 30%

7 Dec 2025Brighton1–1West Ham
26 Apr 2025Brighton3–2West Ham
21 Dec 2024West Ham1–1Brighton
2 Jan 2024West Ham0–0Brighton
26 Aug 2023Brighton1–3West Ham
4 Mar 2023Brighton4–0West Ham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	West Ham	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.06	1.44
Conceded per game	2.00	1.39
Match goals	3.06	2.83	2.85
Over 1.5	94%	89%
Over 2.5	61%	56%	54%
Over 3.5	28%	22%
Both teams scored	56%	67%	57%
Clean sheets	6%	22%
Failed to score	39%	22%
Games	18	18

	West Ham	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.40
Conceded per game	1.80	1.40
Match goals	3.10	2.80	2.85
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	West Ham	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.53	4.83
Corners conceded	6.35	4.56
Match total	11.88	9.39	9.89
Over 8.5	82% 14/17	61% 11/18
Over 9.5	71% 12/17	56% 10/18
Over 10.5	71% 12/17	50% 9/18
Cards
Cards	1.67	2.44
Opponent cards	1.61	2.06
Match total	3.28	4.50	3.87
Over 3.5	44% 8/18	72% 13/18
Over 4.5	22% 4/18	44% 8/18

	West Ham	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.44	4.90
Corners conceded	5.22	5.00
Match total	10.66	9.90	9.89
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	1.50
Match total	3.80	3.70	3.87
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Salisbury 79 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.58league 3.72

Red cards0.22league 0.11

Cards 5+37%league 38%

Fouls22.4league 21.5

Penalties0.27league 0.19

Home wins49%league 48%

West Ham5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

W8 Nov 25H · Burnley3–22
L10 Mar 25H · Newcastle0–10
D21 Jan 24A · Sheffield Utd2–23
W7 Dec 23A · Tottenham2–13
W12 Nov 23H · Nottingham Forest3–22

Brighton5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.2 Pens for · against0 · 1

L15 May 24H · Chelsea1–22
W10 Mar 24H · Nottingham Forest1–04
D29 Oct 23H · Fulham1–10
L14 Oct 22A · Brentford0–21
W27 Aug 22H · Leeds1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.