West Ham
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
West Ham29.2%fair odds 3.43
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.87
Brighton45.0%fair odds 2.22
Expected goals1.25 – 1.60total 2.85
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Brighton
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| West Ham ↓ · Brighton → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are West Ham goals, columns Brighton goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.20
- 1–29.3%10.80
- 0–18.7%11.53
- 0–27.4%13.47
- 2–17.2%13.85
- 1–06.6%15.09
- 0–06.4%15.58
- 2–25.8%17.32
- 1–34.9%20.26
- 2–04.5%22.16
Winning margin
4.1%
West Ham by 3+
fair 24.20
8.4%
West Ham by 2
fair 11.95
16.7%
West Ham by 1
fair 5.99
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.87
21.6%
Brighton by 1
fair 4.64
13.8%
Brighton by 2
fair 7.26
9.6%
Brighton by 3+
fair 10.38
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
West Ham goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Brighton goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 29.2% | 29.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.6% | -0.8 pp |
| Brighton win | 45.0% | 43.7% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 51.2% | +2.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.5% | 55.4% | +2.1 pp |
| Expected goals West Ham | 1.25 | 1.21 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Brighton | 1.60 | 1.51 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- West Ham win29.2%3.43
- Draw25.8%3.87
- Brighton win45.0%2.22
- Double chance West Ham or draw55.0%1.82
- Double chance West Ham or Brighton74.2%1.35
- Double chance Brighton or draw70.8%1.41
- Draw no bet West Ham39.4%2.54
- Draw no bet Brighton60.6%1.65
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.3%1.28
- Over 2.554.2%1.85
- Over 3.531.8%3.14
- Over 4.516.0%6.26
- Under 1.521.7%4.61
- Under 2.545.8%2.18
- Under 3.568.2%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes57.5%1.74
- No42.5%2.35
- Yes and over 2.545.3%2.21
- West Ham win and yes15.4%6.49
- Draw and yes19.4%5.15
- Brighton win and yes22.7%4.41
Team goals
- West Ham over 0.571.3%1.40
- West Ham over 1.535.4%2.82
- West Ham over 2.513.1%7.64
- Brighton over 0.579.8%1.25
- Brighton over 1.547.5%2.11
- Brighton over 2.521.7%4.62
- West Ham clean sheet20.2%4.95
- Brighton clean sheet28.7%3.48
- West Ham win to nil13.8%7.26
- Brighton win to nil22.3%4.48
Handicap
- West Ham −1.512.5%8.00
- West Ham −2.54.1%24.20
- Brighton +1.587.5%1.14
- Brighton +2.595.9%1.04
- Brighton −1.523.4%4.27
- West Ham +1.576.6%1.31
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored180
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.583
Over 2.5 called right56.1%
BTTS called right52.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 28 | 38.2% | 46.4% |
| 40–50% | 68 | 45.0% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 47 | 54.3% | 55.3% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 63.9% | 73.7% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 73.4% | 68.8% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 150 of 180 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5789 | 0.5674 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.3% | 42.0% |
| Favourite won | 56.0% | 56.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 150 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 180 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.