West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Liverpool were slight favourites.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 55). Liverpool usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. West Ham had 8 days of rest, Liverpool 8 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
West Ham21%
Draw23%
Liverpool55%
West Ham23%
Draw25%
Liverpool52%
West Ham22%
Draw24%
Liverpool55%
West Ham16%
Draw21%
Liverpool63%
West Ham22%
Draw25%
Liverpool53%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 106
Team strength
West Ham
Liverpool
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
86
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
84
68
AttackIn forecast
85
64
DefenceIn forecast
84
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamLiverpool
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.08
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
67%
Scored inContext
83%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.00
ShotsContext
15.33
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.17
39%
On target shareContext
27%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.17
67%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.67
15.75
Shots allowedContext
11.58
5.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.55
4.50
BlocksContext
3.27
3.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.73
64%
Save rateContext
60%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
378
PassesContext
526
303
Accurate passesContext
451
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.58
FoulsContext
10.17
9.92
Fouls sufferedContext
10.75
1.58
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
2.01
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.71
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.60
ShotsContext
16.70
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
41%
On target shareContext
34%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
11.70
67%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.29
16.70
Shots allowedContext
10.90
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
5.20
BlocksContext
2.50
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
71%
Save rateContext
62%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
359
PassesContext
516
283
Accurate passesContext
447
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.00
FoulsContext
10.60
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km301 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Liverpool
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel286 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 301 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 3.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
12E. Diouf
25J. Todibo
15K. Mavropanos
29A. Wan-Bissaka
32F. Potts
27S. Magassa
18Mateus Fernandes
10Lucas Paquetá
20J. Bowen
9C. Wilson
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
2J. Gomez
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
7F. Wirtz
8D. Szoboszlai
9A. Isak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Liverpool
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Liverpool+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
1.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-4
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.50
Liverpool · Away
1.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-4
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | West Ham | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 A | W 4–2 H |
| Burnley | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Newcastle | W 3–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Brentford | L 0–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Everton | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Chelsea | L 1–5 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 11 of 27 · 1.22 per game | 15 of 27 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 West Ham wins1 draws8 Liverpool wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.30
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets0% · 30%
- 13 Apr 2025Liverpool2–1West Ham
- 29 Dec 2024West Ham0–5Liverpool
- 27 Apr 2024West Ham2–2Liverpool
- 24 Sep 2023Liverpool3–1West Ham
- 26 Apr 2023West Ham1–2Liverpool
- 19 Oct 2022Liverpool1–0West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.08 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 3.17 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| West Ham | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.42 | 5.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.92 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 12.34 | 10.59 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 10/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 10/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 83% 10/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.58 | 1.92 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 4.00 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 5/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 4/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| West Ham | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 6.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.30 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 12.40 | 10.60 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 106 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 3.73
Red cards0.10league 0.11
Cards 5+42%league 42%
Fouls22.2league 22.0
Penalties0.28league 0.21
Home wins44%league 52%
West Ham6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L26 Apr 25A · Brighton2–31
- L15 Feb 25H · Brentford0–11
- D10 Mar 24H · Burnley2–22
- L30 Dec 22H · Brentford0–21
- W1 Jan 22A · Crystal Palace3–22
Liverpool6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W20 Sep 25H · Everton2–12
- D25 May 25H · Crystal Palace1–13
- W1 Feb 25A · Bournemouth2–03
- D28 May 23A · Southampton4–42
- D25 Feb 23A · Crystal Palace0–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham12 games · scored 15 · conceded 25
2
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
6
61-75
7
4
76-90
Liverpool12 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
8
6
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
7
3
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
