West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
West Ham
18th · 28 pts · 29 played
WDDLW
1–1Full time
Manchester City
2nd · 60 pts · 29 played
WWWWD
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for West Ham. West Ham had 10 days of rest, Manchester City 10 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days10 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1
West Ham28%
Draw25%
Manchester City47%
West Ham21%
Draw25%
Manchester City54%
West Ham29%
Draw25%
Manchester City46%
West Ham22%
Draw23%
Manchester City55%
West Ham29%
Draw26%
Manchester City45%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 200
Team strength
West HamManchester City
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
88
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
68
AttackIn forecast
92
64
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamManchester City
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.03
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.93
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
69%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
41%
10.48
ShotsContext
14.45
3.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.21
34%
On target shareContext
36%
7.27
Shots in the boxContext
10.59
68%
Box shareContext
73%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.12
OffsidesContext
1.73
14.76
Shots allowedContext
10.07
5.34
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.52
4.56
BlocksContext
3.00
3.62
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.59
68%
Save rateContext
74%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
374
PassesContext
580
297
Accurate passesContext
512
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.11
11.03
FoulsContext
10.10
11.17
Fouls sufferedContext
11.21
1.72
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.70
ShotsContext
14.00
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
33%
On target shareContext
37%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
68%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
13.30
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.00
BlocksContext
3.44
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
70%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
403
PassesContext
596
317
Accurate passesContext
534
79%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.05
12.50
FoulsContext
10.90
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester City
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Mar | 10Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 28.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
4A. Disasi
15K. Mavropanos
25J. Todibo
12E. Diouf
18Mateus Fernandes
28T. Souček
29A. Wan-Bissaka
19Pablo
20J. Bowen
11V. Castellanos
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
21R. Aït-Nouri
15A. Guéhi
45A. Khusanov
27M. Nunes
16Rodri
33N. O'Reilly
20Bernardo Silva
42A. Semenyo
7O. Marmoush
9E. Haaland
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Manchester City+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
0.86points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-8
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.93
Manchester City · Away
1.71points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-4
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | West Ham | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | W 3–0 HW 5–4 A |
| Liverpool | L 2–5 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Bournemouth | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Burnley | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H | W 5–1 H |
| Chelsea | L 2–3 AL 1–5 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sunderland | W 3–1 HL 0–3 A | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Wolves | L 0–3 A | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Brighton | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Aston Villa | L 2–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Newcastle | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Leeds | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Brentford | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Everton | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 28 of 84 · 1.00 per game | 57 of 84 · 2.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
0 West Ham wins1 draws9 Manchester City wins
Goals per game0.80 – 2.70
Over 2.590%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets0% · 30%
- 20 Dec 2025Manchester City3–0West Ham
- 4 Jan 2025Manchester City4–1West Ham
- 31 Aug 2024West Ham1–3Manchester City
- 19 May 2024Manchester City3–1West Ham
- 16 Sep 2023West Ham1–3Manchester City
- 3 May 2023Manchester City3–0West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 2.03 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 0.93 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 2.97 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 62% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 48% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 41% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 14% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| West Ham | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.60 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.32 | 5.32 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.29 | 3.93 | |
| Match total | 11.61 | 9.25 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 22/28 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 20/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 68% 19/28 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.93 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.76 | 3.96 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 15/29 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 9/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| West Ham | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 8.90 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.76
Red cards0.14league 0.12
Cards 5+35%league 39%
Fouls22.4league 21.6
Penalties0.23league 0.21
Home wins42%league 42%
West Ham20 with this referee
Record7-3-10
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.6
Pens for · against2 · 3
Reds1
- L22 Aug 25H · Chelsea1–50
- D4 May 25H · Tottenham1–12
- L31 Aug 24H · Manchester City1–33
- W11 May 24H · Luton3–11
- W28 Dec 23A · Arsenal2–00
Manchester City23 with this referee
Record17-3-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.1
Pens for · against2 · 4
- D4 Jan 26H · Chelsea1–13
- L26 Oct 25A · Aston Villa0–14
- W29 Dec 24A · Leicester2–01
- W4 Dec 24H · Nottingham Forest3–02
- L2 Nov 24A · Bournemouth1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham29 games · scored 35 · conceded 54
9
8
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
3
9
46-60
4
12
61-75
9
12
76-90
Manchester City29 games · scored 59 · conceded 27
8
0-15
8
3
16-30
18
4
31-45
6
6
46-60
11
8
61-75
8
6
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
5
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
4
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
4
0-15
4
5
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
