West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
West Ham
18th · 23 pts · 25 played
LWWLW
1–1Full time
Manchester United
5th · 44 pts · 25 played
DWWWW
Our take
Manchester United were slight favourites.
Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 55). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Manchester United. West Ham had 3.2 days of rest, Manchester United 3.3 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days3.2 · 3.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
West Ham27%
Draw25%
Manchester United48%
West Ham29%
Draw27%
Manchester United44%
West Ham27%
Draw25%
Manchester United48%
West Ham21%
Draw23%
Manchester United56%
West Ham28%
Draw26%
Manchester United46%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Hooper
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 140
Team strength
West HamManchester United
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
68
AttackIn forecast
72
64
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamManchester United
1.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.84
1.92
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
68%
Scored inContext
88%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
10.28
ShotsContext
16.32
4.05
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
35%
On target shareContext
36%
7.05
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
68%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.10
15.12
Shots allowedContext
11.08
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
4.61
BlocksContext
3.61
3.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
67%
Save rateContext
63%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
376
PassesContext
461
299
Accurate passesContext
381
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.08
FoulsContext
9.96
11.32
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.68
Yellow cardsContext
1.32
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
70%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
16.10
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
33%
On target shareContext
39%
7.63
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
68%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.14
14.40
Shots allowedContext
11.30
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
3.89
BlocksContext
4.40
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
70%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
433
PassesContext
468
348
Accurate passesContext
396
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.10
FoulsContext
8.80
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km583 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Manchester United
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Manchester United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 3.3Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 583 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10.9 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
12E. Diouf
4A. Disasi
15K. Mavropanos
29A. Wan-Bissaka
32F. Potts
18Mateus Fernandes
7C. Summerville
28T. Souček
20J. Bowen
11V. Castellanos
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
6L. Martínez
5J. Maguire
2Diogo Dalot
18Casemiro
37K. Mainoo
19B. Mbeumo
8Bruno Fernandes
16A. Diallo
10Matheus Cunha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester United
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Manchester United+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
0.83points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-8
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.17
Manchester United · Away
1.42points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-3
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | West Ham | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Chelsea | L 2–3 AL 1–5 H | W 2–1 H |
| Sunderland | W 3–1 HL 0–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Wolves | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Brighton | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | W 4–2 H |
| Fulham | L 0–1 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 A | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Aston Villa | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 A | D 4–4 H |
| Newcastle | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Leeds | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Brentford | L 0–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 A | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Everton | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 22 of 72 · 0.92 per game | 43 of 72 · 1.79 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 West Ham wins1 draws5 Manchester United wins
Goals per game0.90 – 1.00
Over 2.530%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets30% · 40%
- 4 Dec 2025Manchester United1–1West Ham
- 11 May 2025Manchester United0–2West Ham
- 27 Oct 2024West Ham2–1Manchester United
- 4 Feb 2024Manchester United3–0West Ham
- 23 Dec 2023West Ham2–0Manchester United
- 7 May 2023West Ham1–0Manchester United
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.24 | 1.84 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.92 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 3.16 | 3.28 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 72% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 12% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| West Ham | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.21 | 4.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 5.08 | |
| Match total | 11.54 | 9.50 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 19/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 17/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 16/24 | 29% 7/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.28 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.64 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 13/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 8/25 | 36% 9/25 | |
| West Ham | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 9.78 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.00 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Hooper 140 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 3.74
Red cards0.07league 0.12
Cards 5+36%league 38%
Fouls21.8league 21.4
Penalties0.16league 0.23
Home wins49%league 43%
West Ham9 with this referee
Record4-3-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D7 Dec 25A · Brighton1–12
- D28 Sep 24A · Brentford1–13
- W26 Feb 24H · Brentford4–21
- W23 Dec 23H · Manchester United2–02
- L28 May 23A · Leicester1–21
Manchester United11 with this referee
Record4-3-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L11 Jan 26H · Brighton1–24
- D15 Dec 25H · Bournemouth4–42
- L17 Aug 25H · Arsenal0–11
- L30 Dec 24H · Newcastle0–21
- D30 Mar 24A · Brentford1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham25 games · scored 31 · conceded 48
9
7
0-15
3
2
16-30
7
9
31-45
1
9
46-60
2
11
61-75
9
10
76-90
Manchester United25 games · scored 46 · conceded 36
4
3
0-15
7
4
16-30
9
5
31-45
9
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
12
11
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
6
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
46-60
6
61-75
2
3
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
