West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Newcastle were slight favourites.
Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 50). West Ham had 8.8 days of rest, Newcastle 8 and had to travel 398 km.
Away travel398 kmRest days8.8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
West Ham24%
Draw24%
Newcastle52%
West Ham24%
Draw26%
Newcastle50%
West Ham24%
Draw25%
Newcastle51%
West Ham18%
Draw22%
Newcastle60%
West Ham24%
Draw25%
Newcastle51%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobert Jones
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 127
Team strength
West Ham
Newcastle
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
68
AttackIn forecast
61
64
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNewcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamNewcastle
0.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.89
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
56%
Scored inContext
67%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
56%
9.44
ShotsContext
12.67
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
35%
On target shareContext
31%
6.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
67%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.20
14.78
Shots allowedContext
9.67
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
4.22
BlocksContext
4.00
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
54%
Save rateContext
77%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
404
PassesContext
419
330
Accurate passesContext
339
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.78
FoulsContext
11.89
9.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.56
1.56
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
9.50
ShotsContext
12.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
38%
On target shareContext
38%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
67%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.70
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.30
BlocksContext
4.22
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
56%
Save rateContext
83%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
426
PassesContext
426
351
Accurate passesContext
348
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.60
FoulsContext
11.40
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km544 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Newcastle
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel398 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Newcastle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Oct | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 398 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 544 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
12E. Diouf
25J. Todibo
3M. Kilman
29A. Wan-Bissaka
10Lucas Paquetá
32F. Potts
18Mateus Fernandes
7C. Summerville
9C. Wilson
20J. Bowen
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
1N. Pope(G)
33D. Burn
4S. Botman
12M. Thiaw
17E. Krafth
7Joelinton
8S. Tonali
39Bruno Guimarães
10A. Gordon
27N. Woltemade
23J. Murphy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Newcastle
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Newcastle+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
0.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-4
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Newcastle · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-1
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | West Ham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 West Ham wins3 draws5 Newcastle wins
Goals per game1.60 – 2.10
Over 2.550%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 10 Mar 2025West Ham0–1Newcastle
- 25 Nov 2024Newcastle0–2West Ham
- 30 Mar 2024Newcastle4–3West Ham
- 8 Oct 2023West Ham2–2Newcastle
- 5 Apr 2023West Ham1–5Newcastle
- 4 Feb 2023Newcastle1–1West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.78 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.22 | 0.89 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.89 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 44% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 44% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 56% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| West Ham | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.78 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.22 | 0.89 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.89 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 44% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 44% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 56% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.11 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 12.55 | 10.45 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.22 | 3.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| West Ham | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.11 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 12.55 | 11.70 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.30 | 3.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Jones 127 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 3.55
Red cards0.11league 0.11
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls22.8league 21.9
Penalties0.24league 0.19
Home wins46%league 51%
West Ham7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L16 Aug 25A · Sunderland0–31
- D21 Dec 24H · Brighton1–12
- W24 Aug 24A · Crystal Palace2–01
- L30 Mar 24A · Newcastle3–41
- L14 Aug 22A · Nottingham Forest0–11
Newcastle13 with this referee
Record8-2-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- D21 Sep 25A · Bournemouth0–01
- W7 Apr 25A · Leicester3–00
- W1 Sep 24H · Tottenham2–14
- L15 May 24A · Manchester United2–33
- W30 Mar 24H · West Ham4–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham9 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
4
2
76-90
Newcastle9 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
61-75
4
4
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
5
2
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
