West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
West Ham
18th · 14 pts · 20 played
LLLDL
1–2Full time
Nottingham Forest
17th · 18 pts · 20 played
WLLLL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 50). West Ham had 3.2 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 3.3 and had to travel 175 km.
Away travel175 kmRest days3.2 · 3.3Matches / 14d3 · 3
West Ham36%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest38%
West Ham36%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest37%
West Ham36%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest37%
West Ham29%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest45%
West Ham36%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest37%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeTony Harrington
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 80
Team strength
West HamNottingham Forest
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
68
AttackIn forecast
68
64
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamNottingham Forest
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.95
2.05
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
60%
Scored inContext
50%
5%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
9.80
ShotsContext
12.35
3.94
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
32%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
69%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.18
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.25
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.72
BlocksContext
4.50
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
67%
Save rateContext
61%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
382
PassesContext
437
306
Accurate passesContext
363
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.65
FoulsContext
11.30
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.84
1.55
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
60%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.60
ShotsContext
14.00
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
29%
On target shareContext
35%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
71%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.14
16.00
Shots allowedContext
9.80
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
5.63
BlocksContext
4.44
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.78
75%
Save rateContext
55%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
367
PassesContext
455
291
Accurate passesContext
382
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.10
FoulsContext
11.80
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km363 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Nottingham Forest
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel175 km146 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Jan | 3.3Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 363 km | 146 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10.8 | 10.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
30O. Scarles
25J. Todibo
15K. Mavropanos
2K. Walker-Peters
18Mateus Fernandes
28T. Souček
7C. Summerville
10Lucas Paquetá
20J. Bowen
11V. Castellanos
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
34T. Aina
16N. Domínguez
8E. Anderson
7C. Hudson-Odoi
10M. Gibbs-White
21O. Hutchinson
19Igor Jesus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Nottingham Forest+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
0.70points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-7
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.30
Nottingham Forest · Away
0.80points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-6
- Scored
- 0.70
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | West Ham | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Brighton | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Fulham | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Aston Villa | L 2–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Burnley | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Newcastle | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Leeds | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Brentford | L 0–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Everton | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Tottenham | L 0–3 H | W 3–0 H |
| Chelsea | L 1–5 H | L 0–3 H |
| Sunderland | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 11 of 57 · 0.58 per game | 18 of 57 · 0.95 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 West Ham wins0 draws4 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game1.57 – 1.43
Over 2.571%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets29% · 43%
- 31 Aug 2025Nottingham Forest0–3West Ham
- 18 May 2025West Ham1–2Nottingham Forest
- 2 Nov 2024Nottingham Forest3–0West Ham
- 17 Feb 2024Nottingham Forest2–0West Ham
- 12 Nov 2023West Ham3–2Nottingham Forest
- 25 Feb 2023West Ham4–0Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 0.95 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.05 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.60 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 55% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 35% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 5% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| West Ham | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.50 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.58 | 5.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.26 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 11.84 | 9.85 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 84% 16/19 | 75% 15/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 74% 14/19 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 68% 13/19 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.65 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 9/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 5/20 | 25% 5/20 | |
| West Ham | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.34 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.10 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tony Harrington 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.67
Red cards0.13league 0.10
Cards 5+29%league 37%
Fouls21.0league 21.3
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins44%league 46%
West Ham3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L20 Sep 25H · Crystal Palace1–23
- L17 Aug 24H · Aston Villa1–21
- W6 Apr 24A · Wolves2–12
Nottingham Forest5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L27 Sep 25H · Sunderland0–14
- D11 May 25H · Leicester2–23
- W29 Dec 24A · Everton2–01
- W30 Nov 24H · Ipswich1–01
- L11 May 24H · Chelsea2–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham20 games · scored 21 · conceded 41
4
7
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
9
31-45
1
7
46-60
2
8
61-75
8
8
76-90
Nottingham Forest20 games · scored 19 · conceded 33
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
9
31-45
6
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
12
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
3
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
