West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Tottenham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 57). West Ham had 13.1 days of rest, Tottenham 14.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days13.1 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
West Ham38%
Draw26%
Tottenham36%
West Ham38%
Draw27%
Tottenham35%
West Ham38%
Draw26%
Tottenham36%
West Ham31%
Draw26%
Tottenham43%
West Ham38%
Draw27%
Tottenham35%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeJarred Gillett
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 88
Team strength
West Ham
Tottenham
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
68
AttackIn forecast
56
64
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamTottenham
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
67%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.00
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
44%
On target shareContext
36%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
72%
Box shareContext
73%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.00
Shots allowedContext
14.67
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
2.33
BlocksContext
3.67
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
47%
Save rateContext
93%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
442
PassesContext
440
374
Accurate passesContext
368
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
7.17
7.67
FoulsContext
14.33
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
9.33
0.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.50
ShotsContext
8.90
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
38%
On target shareContext
33%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
75%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.80
Shots allowedContext
14.10
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.78
BlocksContext
4.10
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
64%
Save rateContext
77%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
466
PassesContext
328
399
Accurate passesContext
258
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.80
FoulsContext
13.90
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tottenham
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Tottenham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.1Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 14.1Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 350 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
12E. Diouf
3M. Kilman
15K. Mavropanos
2K. Walker-Peters
8J. Ward-Prowse
28T. Souček
7C. Summerville
18Mateus Fernandes
20J. Bowen
10Lucas Paquetá
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
24D. Spence
37M. van de Ven
17C. Romero
23Pedro Porro
15L. Bergvall
6João Palhinha
29P. Sarr
7X. Simons
11M. Tel
20M. Kudus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tottenham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tottenham+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 5.00
Tottenham · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 West Ham wins4 draws3 Tottenham wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.70
Over 2.550%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets10% · 10%
- 4 May 2025West Ham1–1Tottenham
- 19 Oct 2024Tottenham4–1West Ham
- 2 Apr 2024West Ham1–1Tottenham
- 7 Dec 2023Tottenham1–2West Ham
- 19 Feb 2023Tottenham2–0West Ham
- 31 Aug 2022West Ham1–1Tottenham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| West Ham | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 13.33 | 10.00 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 3/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 0.66 | 3.67 | 3.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| West Ham | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 11.23 | 10.00 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.70 | 3.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jarred Gillett 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 3.64
Red cards0.10league 0.08
Cards 5+36%league 42%
Fouls20.1league 23.0
Penalties0.22league 0.31
Home wins42%league 53%
West Ham6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W11 May 25A · Manchester United2–01
- D17 Mar 24H · Aston Villa1–13
- W8 Apr 23A · Fulham1–01
- W25 Feb 23H · Nottingham Forest4–00
- L12 Nov 22H · Leicester0–23
Tottenham10 with this referee
Record5-0-5
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L26 Feb 25H · Manchester City0–13
- W2 Feb 25A · Brentford2–01
- L15 Sep 24H · Arsenal0–15
- W11 May 24H · Burnley2–13
- W30 Mar 24H · Luton2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham3 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Tottenham3 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
61-75
7
5
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
