Wolves vs Brentford – 20 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 17 Sat, Dec 20 · 15:00 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves 20th · 2 pts · 16 played LLLLL

0–2Full time

Brentford 15th · 20 pts · 16 played LWLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brentford were slight favourites.

Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 38). Absences weigh more on Wolves. Wolves had 6.8 days of rest, Brentford 5.9 and had to travel 174 km.

Away travel174 kmRest days6.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Wolves25%

Draw25%

Brentford50%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.70

Wolves26%

Draw26%

Brentford48%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.60

Wolves26%

Draw26%

Brentford48%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.66

Wolves19%

Draw23%

Brentford57%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.90

Wolves25%

Draw26%

Brentford49%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.64

Over 2.5 54% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereeMatt Donohue

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.09
Matches 128

Team strength

Wolves

Brentford

38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

41 AttackIn forecast 73

46 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

Brentford

0.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38

2.19 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.56

0.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

44% Scored inContext 75%

0% Clean sheetsContext 13%

8.63 ShotsContext 9.88

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.81

33% On target shareContext 39%

5.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.71

63% Box shareContext 72%

7% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.92

14.06 Shots allowedContext 12.63

4.81 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.87 BlocksContext 4.19

2.93 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

60% Save rateContext 67%

46% PossessionIn forecast 44%

390 PassesContext 362

312 Accurate passesContext 283

80% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.79

14.56 FoulsContext 11.31

9.75 Fouls sufferedContext 8.73

2.19 Yellow cardsContext 1.88

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

40% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

7.80 ShotsContext 10.70

2.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

32% On target shareContext 35%

5.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

61% Box shareContext 71%

6% ConversionContext 12%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.89

15.40 Shots allowedContext 11.80

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

5.30 BlocksContext 3.70

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

63% Save rateContext 68%

45% PossessionIn forecast 46%

378 PassesContext 387

302 Accurate passesContext 303

80% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.83

15.00 FoulsContext 10.30

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 8.22

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km363 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel174 km26 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Dec	5.9Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	174 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	363 km	26 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1José Sá(G)

37L. Krejčí 4S. Bueno 2M. Doherty

6D. Møller Wolfe 8João Gomes 7André 28Fer López 26K. Hoever

11H. Hwang 9J. Strand Larsen

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1C. Kelleher(G)

3R. Henry 4S. van den Berg 22N. Collins 33M. Kayode

8M. Jensen 27V. Janelt 18Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 9Thiago 23K. Lewis-Potter

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves-1.0 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Brentford+1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home 0.13points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-7
Scored: 0.88
Conceded: 2.63

Brentford · Away 0.38points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-7
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Wolves	Brentford
Arsenal	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 A
Manchester United	L 1–4 H	W 3–1 H
Nottingham Forest	L 0–1 H	L 1–3 A
Aston Villa	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 H	L 0–2 A
Chelsea	L 0–3 A	D 2–2 H
Fulham	L 0–3 A	L 1–3 A
Burnley	L 2–3 H	W 3–1 H
Sunderland	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
Brighton	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Tottenham	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 A
Leeds	L 1–3 H	D 1–1 H
Newcastle	L 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Manchester City	L 0–4 H	L 0–1 H
Points	2 of 42 · 0.14 per game	14 of 42 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Wolves wins2 draws3 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.63 – 1.63 Over 2.538% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 25%

25 May 2025Wolves1–1Brentford
5 Oct 2024Brentford5–3Wolves
10 Feb 2024Wolves0–2Brentford
27 Dec 2023Brentford1–4Wolves
15 Apr 2023Wolves2–0Brentford
29 Oct 2022Brentford1–1Wolves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	0.56	1.38
Conceded per game	2.19	1.56
Match goals	2.75	2.94	2.84
Over 1.5	75%	88%
Over 2.5	50%	56%	54%
Over 3.5	31%	44%
Both teams scored	44%	63%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	13%
Failed to score	56%	25%
Games	16	16

	Wolves	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.30
Conceded per game	2.20	1.40
Match goals	2.70	2.70	2.84
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	54%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	60%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	2.86	5.47
Corners conceded	6.86	4.73
Match total	9.72	10.20	9.92
Over 8.5	71% 10/14	73% 11/15
Over 9.5	64% 9/14	67% 10/15
Over 10.5	43% 6/14	60% 9/15
Cards
Cards	2.31	1.88
Opponent cards	1.44	1.94
Match total	3.75	3.82	3.82
Over 3.5	63% 10/16	56% 9/16
Over 4.5	44% 7/16	50% 8/16

	Wolves	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	5.78
Corners conceded	6.89	4.89
Match total	8.89	10.67	9.92
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.90
Opponent cards	1.30	1.70
Match total	3.70	3.60	3.82
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matt Donohue 128 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.17league 3.68

Red cards0.16league 0.11

Cards 5+48%league 39%

Fouls23.0league 22.0

Penalties0.09league 0.20

Home wins47%league 48%

Wolves

No previous matches with this referee.

Brentford1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W11 May 24A · Bournemouth2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.