Wolves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Wolves25.0%fair odds 4.00
Draw25.2%fair odds 3.97
Brentford49.8%fair odds 2.01
Expected goals1.14 – 1.70total 2.84
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Brentford
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Wolves ↓ · Brentford → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Wolves goals, columns Brentford goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.38
- 1–29.6%10.40
- 0–19.3%10.73
- 0–28.4%11.87
- 2–16.5%15.46
- 0–06.4%15.52
- 1–06.1%16.47
- 2–25.5%18.21
- 1–35.4%18.37
- 0–34.8%20.98
Winning margin
3.1%
Wolves by 3+
fair 32.60
7.0%
Wolves by 2
fair 14.38
15.0%
Wolves by 1
fair 6.66
25.2%
Draw
fair 3.97
22.6%
Brentford by 1
fair 4.42
15.4%
Brentford by 2
fair 6.51
11.8%
Brentford by 3+
fair 8.48
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Wolves goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Brentford goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 25.0% | 25.0% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.2% | 25.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Brentford win | 49.8% | 49.2% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 51.8% | +2.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.2% | 54.6% | +1.7 pp |
| Expected goals Wolves | 1.14 | 1.11 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Brentford | 1.70 | 1.64 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Wolves win25.0%4.00
- Draw25.2%3.97
- Brentford win49.8%2.01
- Double chance Wolves or draw50.2%1.99
- Double chance Wolves or Brentford74.8%1.34
- Double chance Brentford or draw75.0%1.33
- Draw no bet Wolves33.5%2.99
- Draw no bet Brentford66.5%1.50
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.2%1.28
- Over 2.554.0%1.85
- Over 3.531.7%3.15
- Over 4.515.9%6.30
- Under 1.521.8%4.58
- Under 2.546.0%2.17
- Under 3.568.3%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes56.2%1.78
- No43.8%2.28
- Yes and over 2.544.3%2.26
- Wolves win and yes13.2%7.60
- Draw and yes18.8%5.33
- Brentford win and yes24.3%4.12
Team goals
- Wolves over 0.568.1%1.47
- Wolves over 1.531.6%3.16
- Wolves over 2.510.8%9.24
- Brentford over 0.581.7%1.22
- Brentford over 1.550.6%1.98
- Brentford over 2.524.2%4.13
- Wolves clean sheet18.3%5.46
- Brentford clean sheet31.9%3.13
- Wolves win to nil11.9%8.43
- Brentford win to nil25.5%3.93
Handicap
- Wolves −1.510.0%9.98
- Wolves −2.53.1%32.60
- Brentford +1.590.0%1.11
- Brentford +2.596.9%1.03
- Brentford −1.527.2%3.68
- Wolves +1.572.8%1.37
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored161
Favourite won54.7%
Avg chance given to result40.5%
1X2 Brier0.591
Over 2.5 called right57.1%
BTTS called right52.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 24 | 38.2% | 45.8% |
| 40–50% | 61 | 45.0% | 49.2% |
| 50–60% | 44 | 54.2% | 54.5% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 64.2% | 76.5% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 73.3% | 64.3% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 86.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 131 of 161 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5888 | 0.5715 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 55.0% | 55.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 131 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Newcastle 2–2 Chelsea39·26·35
- ✗Manchester United 4–4 Bournemouth51·24·25
- ✗Brentford 1–1 Leeds49·25·26
- ✗Sunderland 1–0 Newcastle23·24·53
- ✗Nottingham Forest 3–0 Tottenham36·26·39
- ✓Crystal Palace 0–3 Manchester City30·26·45
- ✓West Ham 2–3 Aston Villa26·25·49
- ✓Arsenal 2–1 Wolves87·9·4
- ✗Burnley 2–3 Fulham38·26·36
- ✓Chelsea 2–0 Everton57·23·20
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 161 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.