1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 19 pts · 30 played
LDDWL
2–0Full time
FC St. Pauli
16th · 26 pts · 30 played
LLDLD
Our take
1. FC Heidenheim were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards 1. FC Heidenheim. 1. FC Heidenheim had 6 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 7.8 and had to travel 542 km.
Away travel542 kmRest days6 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
1. FC Heidenheim49%
Draw26%
FC St. Pauli26%
1. FC Heidenheim41%
Draw27%
FC St. Pauli32%
1. FC Heidenheim48%
Draw26%
FC St. Pauli26%
1. FC Heidenheim41%
Draw27%
FC St. Pauli32%
1. FC Heidenheim48%
Draw26%
FC St. Pauli26%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 128
Team strength
1. FC HeidenheimFC St. Pauli
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
48
AttackIn forecast
20
39
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC HeidenheimFC St. Pauli
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.87
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
63%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
10.93
ShotsContext
9.87
3.54
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.41
30%
On target shareContext
33%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.76
68%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.08
OffsidesContext
2.57
14.73
Shots allowedContext
11.63
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.03
3.83
BlocksContext
3.44
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.61
59%
Save rateContext
69%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
354
PassesContext
418
275
Accurate passesContext
328
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.71
9.70
FoulsContext
9.43
10.27
Fouls sufferedContext
9.27
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.47
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
60%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.70
ShotsContext
9.70
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
30%
On target shareContext
34%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
71%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.63
13.50
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.67
BlocksContext
3.44
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
60%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
360
PassesContext
375
281
Accurate passesContext
286
78%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.67
8.60
FoulsContext
8.10
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
7.60
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km372 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel542 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 542 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 372 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
26Hennes Behrens
19J. Föhrenbach
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
21A. Beck
30N. Dorsch
3J. Schöppner
8E. Dinkçi
11B. Zivzivadze
18M. Pieringer
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
5H. Wahl
15Tomoya Ando
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
7J. Irvine
20M. Rasmussen
2E. Saliakas
16J. Fujita
10D. Sinani
27A. Hountondji
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC St. Pauli-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
0.93points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-7
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 2.33
FC St. Pauli · Away
0.60points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-10
- Scored
- 0.73
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1. FC Heidenheim | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 2–2 AL 0–3 H | L 0–2 AL 0–4 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 3–3 HL 0–6 A | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–4 HL 1–3 A | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–4 H | L 0–5 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 19 of 87 · 0.66 per game | 23 of 87 · 0.79 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 1. FC Heidenheim wins0 draws2 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 13 Dec 2025FC St. Pauli2–11. FC Heidenheim
- 18 Jan 20251. FC Heidenheim0–2FC St. Pauli
- 25 Aug 2024FC St. Pauli0–21. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.87 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.57 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 53% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 53% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 40% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.50 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.46 | 4.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.82 | 4.66 | |
| Match total | 9.28 | 9.18 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 17/28 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 10/28 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 9/28 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.47 | 1.53 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.97 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 3.33 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 14/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 10/30 | 23% 7/30 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 8.40 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.20 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 128 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.68league 3.73
Red cards0.15league 0.17
Cards 5+54%league 38%
Fouls21.9league 20.3
Penalties0.31league 0.37
Home wins43%league 44%
1. FC Heidenheim5 with this referee
Record0-3-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L15 Feb 26A · FC Augsburg0–12
- L13 Sep 25H · Borussia Dortmund0–23
- D31 Mar 24A · VfB Stuttgart3–31
- D13 Jan 24A · 1.FC Köln1–11
- D26 Nov 23H · VfL Bochum0–04
FC St. Pauli6 with this referee
Record1-1-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D8 Mar 26H · Eintracht Frankfurt0–02
- L29 Nov 25A · Bayern München1–31
- L17 May 25H · VfL Bochum0–20
- L22 Feb 25A · FSV Mainz 050–23
- W29 Nov 24H · Holstein Kiel3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim30 games · scored 33 · conceded 66
2
3
0-15
4
11
16-30
5
15
31-45
7
12
46-60
6
11
61-75
9
14
76-90
FC St. Pauli30 games · scored 26 · conceded 51
1
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
5
13
46-60
5
9
61-75
5
11
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
1
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
7
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
